{"id":12553,"date":"2021-05-23T19:50:00","date_gmt":"2021-05-23T16:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=12553"},"modified":"2021-05-23T15:54:16","modified_gmt":"2021-05-23T12:54:16","slug":"fitch-2021-ben-eleri-a-88-ezer-milliard-dollart-a-globalis-allamadossag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=12553&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Fitch: 2021-ben el\u00e9ri a 88 ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>V\u00e1rhat\u00f3an \u00f3ri\u00e1si \u00fctemben emelkedik m\u00e9g j\u00f6v\u0151re is a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rainak enyh\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9t c\u00e9lz\u00f3 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si kiad\u00e1sok miatt, \u00e9s ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben kock\u00e1zatos lenne arra sz\u00e1m\u00edtani, hogy az alacsony kamatok hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von fennmaradnak, k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si kiigaz\u00edt\u00e1sok n\u00e9lk\u00fcl is elviselhet\u0151v\u00e9 t\u00e9ve a magas ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gterheket \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch Ratings p\u00e9nteken Londonban ismertetett glob\u00e1lis ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gdinamikai \u00e1ttekint\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignfull size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"970\" height=\"300\" src=\"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trend-1445460-1920-970x300-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12554\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trend-1445460-1920-970x300-1.jpg 970w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trend-1445460-1920-970x300-1-300x93.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/trend-1445460-1920-970x300-1-768x238.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A nemzetk\u00f6zi hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi szint\u0171 \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g 2022-re el\u00e9ri 95 ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt. Ez 40 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal haladn\u00e1 meg a 2019-ben \u2013 a koronav\u00edrus-vil\u00e1gj\u00e1rv\u00e1ny el\u0151tti utols\u00f3 teljes \u00e9vben \u2013 m\u00e9rt szintet. A Fitch Ratings el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9khez (GDP) m\u00e9rt \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-r\u00e1t\u00e1k medi\u00e1n\u00e9rt\u00e9ke a fejlett \u00e9s a felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 t\u00e9rs\u00e9gben egyar\u00e1nt 61 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6r\u00fcl lesz az id\u00e9n, \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151re 65 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9re emelkedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 gazdas\u00e1gok GDP-ar\u00e1nyos kamatk\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geinek medi\u00e1nja ugyanakkor 2,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lesz az id\u00e9n, sz\u00e1mottev\u0151en magasabb, mint a fejlett ipari t\u00e9rs\u00e9g\u00e9, amely a Fitch progn\u00f3zisa szerint 2021-ben nem haladja meg az 1,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 tanulm\u00e1nya kimutatja, hogy a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g m\u00e1r tavaly t\u00edzezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rral emelkedett, \u00e9s 2020 v\u00e9g\u00e9n \u2013 \u00e9ves \u00e1tlagos \u00e1tv\u00e1lt\u00e1si \u00e1rfolyamokon sz\u00e1molva \u2013 el\u00e9rte a 78 ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt, a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi szint\u0171 GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k 94 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t. A Fitch Ratings londoni elemz\u0151inek el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint az id\u00e9n is hasonl\u00f3 m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 emelked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3, a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g 2021-ben el\u00e9ri a 88 ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt, j\u00f6v\u0151re innen emelkedik tov\u00e1bb imm\u00e1r kisebb \u00fctemben a c\u00e9g \u00e1ltal val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edtett 95 ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az e forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv alapj\u00e1n h\u00e1rom \u00e9v alatt bek\u00f6vetkez\u0151 27 ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ros ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gt\u00f6meg-n\u00f6veked\u00e9s nomin\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9ken p\u00e9ld\u00e1tlan, de sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos ar\u00e1nyban sz\u00e1molva a k\u00e9tezres \u00e9vek eleje \u00f3ta m\u00e1r el\u0151fordult ilyen \u00fctem\u0171 n\u00f6veked\u00e9s h\u00e1rom \u00e9vi id\u0151szakokban \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch p\u00e9ntek este Londonban ismertetett tanulm\u00e1ny\u00e1ban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fitch-368438.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12555\" width=\"549\" height=\"309\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fitch-368438.jpg 375w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/fitch-368438-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 549px) 100vw, 549px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g 2021 eg\u00e9sz\u00e9re robusztus, 6,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9st v\u00e1r, de ezzel egy\u00fctt is azzal sz\u00e1mol, hogy a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g nomin\u00e1lisan \u00e9s GDP-ar\u00e1nyosan egyar\u00e1nt tov\u00e1bb emelkedik. Ez megfelel a m\u00faltbeli gazdas\u00e1gi ciklusok dinamik\u00e1j\u00e1nak, valamint az egy \u00e9vtizeddel ezel\u0151tti vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s eur\u00f3\u00f6vezerti v\u00e1ls\u00e1gok tapasztalatainak is, mivel a k\u00f6zfinansz\u00edroz\u00e1s konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3ja rendszerint k\u00e9sleltetve k\u00f6veti a re\u00e1lgazdas\u00e1gi kil\u00e1bal\u00e1st \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch Ratings elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben. A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 ugyanakkor felh\u00edvja a figyelmet arra is, hogy a mostani \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g alapj\u00e1n az effekt\u00edv kamatszint ak\u00e1r csek\u00e9ly m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 emelked\u00e9se is jelent\u0151s k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si teherrel j\u00e1rna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch Ratings k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint a fejlett gazdas\u00e1gok korm\u00e1nyainak kamatfizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9ge 2022-ben \u2013 \u00e1tlagos \u00e9ves \u00e1tv\u00e1lt\u00e1si \u00e1rfolyamokon sz\u00e1molva \u2013 948 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r lesz, 1,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos felt\u00e9telezett effekt\u00edv kamat mellett. A c\u00e9g szerint azonban ha az effekt\u00edv kamatszint nem 1,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k, hanem \u2013 2019-hez hasonl\u00f3an \u2013 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lenne j\u00f6v\u0151re, a fejlett gazdas\u00e1gok \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1gainak kamatfizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9ge 27 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal 1200 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra emelkedne. Ez azt jelenti, hogy az effekt\u00edv kamatszint minden 100 b\u00e1zispontos emelked\u00e9se j\u00f6v\u0151re 66,6 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rral emeln\u00e9 a fejlett gazdas\u00e1gok szuver\u00e9n kamatfizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geit \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch tanulm\u00e1ny\u00e1ban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g k\u00f6vetkeztet\u00e9se mindezek alapj\u00e1n az, hogy az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1llom\u00e1ny cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s\u00e9hez a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1si kiigaz\u00edt\u00e1sokra is sz\u00fcks\u00e9g lesz, mert kock\u00e1zatokkal j\u00e1r csak az alacsony kamatok tart\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1ban b\u00edzni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/kitekinto.hu\/2021\/05\/22\/gazdasag\/fitch-a-globalis-allamadossag-2021-ben-eleri-a-88-ezer-milliard-dollart\/192271\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(kitekinto.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>V\u00e1rhat\u00f3an \u00f3ri\u00e1si \u00fctemben emelkedik m\u00e9g j\u00f6v\u0151re is a glob\u00e1lis \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rainak enyh\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9t c\u00e9lz\u00f3 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si kiad\u00e1sok miatt, \u00e9s ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben kock\u00e1zatos lenne arra sz\u00e1m\u00edtani, hogy az alacsony kamatok hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von fennmaradnak, k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si kiigaz\u00edt\u00e1sok n\u00e9lk\u00fcl is elviselhet\u0151v\u00e9 t\u00e9ve a magas ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gterheket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":12556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,11,39],"tags":[3795,11921],"class_list":["post-12553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-vilag","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-globalis-gazdasag"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12553","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12553"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12553\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12553"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12553"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12553"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}