{"id":19393,"date":"2022-02-05T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-02-05T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=19393"},"modified":"2022-02-05T12:38:03","modified_gmt":"2022-02-05T10:38:03","slug":"a-fitch-pozitivrol-stabilra-vette-vissza-az-ukran-osztalyzat-kilatasat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=19393&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"A Fitch pozit\u00edvr\u00f3l stabilra vette vissza az ukr\u00e1n oszt\u00e1lyzat kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A felmin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9re utal\u00f3 eddigi pozit\u00edvr\u00f3l stabilra vette vissza Ukrajna &#8220;B&#8221; \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-besorol\u00e1s\u00e1nak kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t a Fitch Ratings.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fitch.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19394\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fitch.jpg 650w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/fitch-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A nemzetk\u00f6zi hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 a p\u00e9ntek \u00e9jjel Londonban bejelentett d\u00f6nt\u00e9s indokl\u00e1s\u00e1ban kifejti: alapeseti el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve nem sz\u00e1mol azzal, hogy teljes k\u00f6r\u0171 fegyveres konfliktus robban ki Oroszorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Ukrajna k\u00f6z\u00f6tt, de v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint hosszan elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 er\u0151teljes fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gre kell sz\u00e1m\u00edtani, \u00e9s ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben feszesebb\u00e9 v\u00e1ltak az ukr\u00e1n gazdas\u00e1g finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si kond\u00edci\u00f3i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch meg\u00e1llap\u00edtja azt is, hogy az ukr\u00e1n szuver\u00e9n oszt\u00e1lyzat tavaly augusztusban v\u00e9grehajtott el\u0151z\u0151 fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lata \u00f3ta n\u00f6vekedtek a k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si kock\u00e1zatok. A c\u00e9g a pozit\u00edv kil\u00e1t\u00e1s visszav\u00e9tel\u00e9vel egy id\u0151ben meger\u0151s\u00edtette a &#8220;B&#8221; szint\u0171 ukr\u00e1n \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-besorol\u00e1st. Ez a szuver\u00e9n oszt\u00e1lyzat m\u00e9lyen a spekulat\u00edv, vagyis befektet\u00e9sre nem aj\u00e1nlott kateg\u00f3ri\u00e1ban van, \u00f6t fokozattal a befektet\u00e9si aj\u00e1nl\u00e1s\u00fa besorol\u00e1si s\u00e1v alapszintje alatt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fith Ratings k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: az Ukrajna elleni teljes k\u00f6r\u0171 orosz inv\u00e1zi\u00f3t val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171tlennek tart\u00f3 alapeseti el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet r\u00e9szben az a meggondol\u00e1s alapozza meg, hogy egy ilyen&nbsp;&nbsp;katonai akci\u00f3\u00e9rt Oroszorsz\u00e1gnak mekkora gazdas\u00e1gi, katonai \u00e9s geopolitikai \u00e1rat kellene fizetnie. Szerepe van ebben az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sben annak is, hogy az Ukrajna elleni katonai fell\u00e9p\u00e9snek nincs szil\u00e1rd t\u00e1mogatotts\u00e1ga az orosz k\u00f6zv\u00e9lem\u00e9nyben &#8211; \u00e1ll a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint az ukr\u00e1n devizatartal\u00e9kok az id\u00e9n 6 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rral 25 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra cs\u00f6kkennek; ez a tartal\u00e9kszint 2,8 havi foly\u00f3 k\u00fcls\u0151 fizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9gnek felel meg. A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 progn\u00f3zisa szerint 2023 v\u00e9g\u00e9re az ukr\u00e1n devizatartal\u00e9k 3,1 havi foly\u00f3 k\u00fcls\u0151 fizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9ggel egyenl\u0151 szintre emelkedik, de ez is j\u00f3val elmarad a Fitch list\u00e1j\u00e1n &#8220;B&#8221; besorol\u00e1ssal nyilv\u00e1ntartott szuver\u00e9n ad\u00f3sok medi\u00e1nj\u00e1t\u00f3l, amely abban az id\u0151szakban v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an 4,2 h\u00f3nap lesz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch Ratings el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint az ukr\u00e1n foly\u00f3m\u00e9rleg-egyenleg hi\u00e1nya az id\u00e9n 1,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal 2,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelkedik, \u00e9s 2023-ban 3,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra b\u0151v\u00fcl. A szuver\u00e9n k\u00fcls\u0151 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gszolg\u00e1lati k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9g 2022-ben viszonylag magas, 4,3 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r lesz, \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151re 5,4 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra emelkedik tov\u00e1bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch az id\u00e9n 2,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6veked\u00e9st v\u00e1r az ukr\u00e1n gazdas\u00e1gban. Ez egy sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal rontott el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s az ukr\u00e1n oszt\u00e1lyzat tavaly augusztusi fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lata \u00f3ta, \u00e9s ennek indokai k\u00f6z\u00f6tt szerepel a re\u00e1lb\u00e9rek \u00e9s a mag\u00e1nfogyaszt\u00e1s n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9nek lassul\u00e1sa, valamint az, hogy a hazai keresletet a magas f\u00f6ldg\u00e1z\u00e1rak mellett a megn\u00f6vekedett geopolitikai kock\u00e1zat is megterheli &#8211; \u00e1ll a Fitch Ratings elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">MTI<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A felmin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9re utal\u00f3 eddigi pozit\u00edvr\u00f3l stabilra vette vissza Ukrajna &#8220;B&#8221; \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-besorol\u00e1s\u00e1nak kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t a Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":19394,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,49,11,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-ukrajna"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/19394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}