{"id":20908,"date":"2022-03-17T18:37:00","date_gmt":"2022-03-17T16:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=20908"},"modified":"2022-03-17T13:12:06","modified_gmt":"2022-03-17T11:12:06","slug":"az-usa-ban-is-beinditottak-a-kamatemelest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=20908&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az USA-ban is beind\u00edtott\u00e1k a kamatemel\u00e9st"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>0-0,25 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos tartom\u00e1nyb\u00f3l 0,25-0,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos tartom\u00e1nyba emelte az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatot az amerikai jegybank szerep\u00e9t bet\u00f6lt\u0151 Federal Reserve Ny\u00edltpiaci Bizotts\u00e1ga. A d\u00f6nt\u00e9s megfelelt az elemz\u0151i v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1soknak.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kamatemel\u00e9si ciklus aligha \u00e1ll meg itt: a kiadott k\u00f6zlem\u00e9ny szerint a tagok az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re m\u00e1r 2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot k\u00f6zel\u00edt\u0151 r\u00e1t\u00e1t is elk\u00e9pzelhet\u0151nek tartanak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/usa-jegybank.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/usa-jegybank.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/usa-jegybank-300x132.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/usa-jegybank-768x338.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fed kamatot utolj\u00e1ra 2018 december\u00e9ben emelt, \u00e9s szinte napra pontosan k\u00e9t \u00e9vvel ez el\u0151tt, 2020. m\u00e1rcius 15-\u00e9n vitte le null\u00e1ra az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamat\u00e1t. Akkor ezt azzal indokolt\u00e1k, hogy a nem sokkal kor\u00e1bban kit\u00f6rt koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny s\u00falyos k\u00e1rokat okoz sok orsz\u00e1g gazdas\u00e1ga sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra, bele\u00e9rtve az USA-t is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sokan v\u00e1rtak kamatemel\u00e9st a Fedt\u0151l, f\u0151leg miut\u00e1n a m\u00falt h\u00e9ten kiadt\u00e1k azt az adatot, hogy az amerikai infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 7,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kosra n\u0151tt a janu\u00e1ri 7,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k ut\u00e1n. Enn\u00e9l magasabb havi sz\u00e1m utolj\u00e1ra 1982 janu\u00e1rj\u00e1ban \u00e9rkezett. R\u00e1ad\u00e1sul az m\u00e9g nem is l\u00e1tszik ezeken a sz\u00e1mokon, hogy a dr\u00e1gul\u00e1s legink\u00e1bb az olyan term\u00e9kekn\u00e9l jelent\u0151s, amelyek a szeg\u00e9nyek \u00e9s az als\u00f3 k\u00f6z\u00e9poszt\u00e1lybeliek sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra fontosak: az \u00e9lelmiszerek \u00e1ra 7,9, az energi\u00e1\u00e9 25,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151tt (term\u00e9szetesen a gazdagabbaknak is kell erre k\u00f6lteni\u00fck, de az \u0151 kiad\u00e1saikban mindez kisebb ar\u00e1nyt k\u00e9pvisel), a haszn\u00e1lt aut\u00f3k\u00e9 pedig \u00fagy ugrott meg 41,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal, hogy az \u00faj aut\u00f3k\u00e9 \u201ecsak\u201d 12,4-gyel n\u0151tt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sok elemz\u0151 azt v\u00e1rta kor\u00e1bban, hogy a febru\u00e1ri vagy legrosszabb esetben is a m\u00e1rciusi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 lesz a cs\u00facs, ahonnan lassulni fog az \u00e1rak emelked\u00e9se, csakhogy a h\u00e1bor\u00fa mindent bor\u00edthat. A vil\u00e1g gazdas\u00e1gi bizonytalans\u00e1ga \u00e9s az Oroszorsz\u00e1ggal szembeni szankci\u00f3k hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra a k\u0151olaj \u00e9s a g\u00e1z \u00e1ra m\u00e1r emelkedik, \u00e9s lehetetlen biztos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st adni, mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nhet a vil\u00e1gban ezek ut\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fed mindenesetre progn\u00f3zist is adott kamatd\u00f6nt\u00e9se mell\u00e9, amely nem ad okot der\u0171l\u00e1t\u00e1sra. Amellett, hogy a 2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s c\u00e9l el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9t a kor\u00e1bbiakn\u00e1l t\u00e1volibbnak l\u00e1tj\u00e1k, a n\u00f6veked\u00e9sre vonatkoz\u00f3 progn\u00f3zison is m\u00f3dos\u00edtottak: am\u00edg eddig 4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel sz\u00e1molt a bizotts\u00e1g, most m\u00e1r 2,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra teszik a b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s idei m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9t, j\u00f6v\u0151re pedig 2,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot v\u00e1rnak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kamatemel\u00e9snek megvan persze az a komoly kock\u00e1zata is, hogy a hitelez\u00e9s dr\u00e1g\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1val \u00e9s n\u00e9h\u00e1ny befektet\u0151 elriaszt\u00e1s\u00e1val visszafogja a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9st, nagyon rossz esetben ak\u00e1r recesszi\u00f3 fel\u00e9 is k\u00fcldheti az orsz\u00e1got. Egy\u00e9rtelm\u0171 \u00fczenetet k\u00fcld viszont, hogy a Fed le akarja t\u00f6rni az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t, ennek pedig j\u00f3 hat\u00e1sa is lehet. A doll\u00e1r er\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9re is j\u00f3 \u2013 m\u00e1s k\u00e9rd\u00e9s, hogy tov\u00e1bb gyeng\u00fclhet az eur\u00f3 \u00e9s a k\u00f6z\u00e9p-eur\u00f3pai orsz\u00e1gok deviz\u00e1i is, de ez m\u00e1r nem a Fed baja. Az Eur\u00f3pai K\u00f6zponti Bank a m\u00falt h\u00e9ten 0 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon hagyta a saj\u00e1t ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamat\u00e1t, K\u00f6z\u00e9p-Eur\u00f3pa jegybankjai, k\u00f6zt\u00fck az MNB is, folyamatos kamatemel\u00e9ssel pr\u00f3b\u00e1lj\u00e1k v\u00e9deni a maguk gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/m.hvg.hu\/gazdasag\/20220316_fed_kamatdontes#rss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(hvg.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>0-0,25 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos tartom\u00e1nyb\u00f3l 0,25-0,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos tartom\u00e1nyba emelte az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatot az amerikai jegybank szerep\u00e9t bet\u00f6lt\u0151 Federal Reserve Ny\u00edltpiaci Bizotts\u00e1ga. A d\u00f6nt\u00e9s megfelelt az elemz\u0151i v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1soknak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":20909,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,11,39],"tags":[27687,12277,246],"class_list":["post-20908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-vilag","tag-fed","tag-kamatemeles","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20908"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20908\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20910,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20908\/revisions\/20910"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/20909"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}