{"id":22654,"date":"2022-04-24T20:01:00","date_gmt":"2022-04-24T17:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=22654"},"modified":"2022-04-24T15:45:17","modified_gmt":"2022-04-24T12:45:17","slug":"moodys-globalis-recessziot-okozhat-az-ukrajnai-haboru-elhuzodasa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=22654&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Moody&#8217;s: Glob\u00e1lis recesszi\u00f3t okozhat az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00e1sa"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recesszi\u00f3ba sodorhatja a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1got az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00e1sa \u2013 \u00e1ll a Moody&#8217;s Investors Service Londonban ismertetett szektorelemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/moodys169.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-7606\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/moodys169.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/moodys169-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/moodys169-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A nemzetk\u00f6zi hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 a nyolcoldalas tanulm\u00e1nyban k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: alapeseti el\u0151rejelz\u00e9si forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve azzal sz\u00e1mol, hogy a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g legal\u00e1bb n\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00f3napig eltart, \u00e9s az ukrajnai inv\u00e1zi\u00f3 miatt Oroszorsz\u00e1gra kir\u00f3tt amerikai, eur\u00f3pai \u00e9s egy\u00e9b szankci\u00f3k legal\u00e1bb k\u00e9t \u00e9vig \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben maradnak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez a forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv \u00f6nmag\u00e1ban nem val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edt sz\u00e9les k\u00f6r\u0171 recesszi\u00f3t, de azt meg\u00e1llap\u00edtja, hogy min\u00e9l tov\u00e1bb h\u00faz\u00f3dik a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g, ann\u00e1l nagyobb a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g eg\u00e9sz\u00e9re kiterjed\u0151 recesszi\u00f3 kock\u00e1zata.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g kidolgozott egy m\u00e9g kedvez\u0151tlenebb forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet is, amely Oroszorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Eur\u00f3pa energiahordoz\u00f3-kereskedelm\u00e9nek teljes le\u00e1ll\u00e1s\u00e1t modellezi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">E forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv-v\u00e1ltozat megval\u00f3sul\u00e1sa a tanulm\u00e1ny szerint jelent\u0151s glob\u00e1lis stresszhelyzetet okozna, f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl att\u00f3l, hogy az orosz energiahordoz\u00f3k kereskedelm\u00e9nek le\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1t melyik f\u00e9l kezdem\u00e9nyezn\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben eg\u00e9sz Eur\u00f3pa recesszi\u00f3ban ker\u00fclne, \u00e9s a Moody&#8217;s \u00e1ltal vil\u00e1gszerte besorol\u00e1ssal ell\u00e1tott csaknem n\u00e9gyezer nem p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi profil\u00fa v\u00e1llalat 25 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka komoly piaci stresszhelyzetben tal\u00e1ln\u00e1 mag\u00e1t \u2013 \u00e1ll a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 keddi elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody&#8217;s tanulm\u00e1nya szerint az eur\u00f3pai recesszi\u00f3 val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg glob\u00e1lis szinten is a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s komoly m\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 lassul\u00e1s\u00e1t, esetleg vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi recesszi\u00f3t okozhatna, \u00e9s ez jelent\u0151s piaci \u00e1rfolyam-volatilit\u00e1shoz, sz\u0171k\u00f6s likvidit\u00e1ssal jellemzett k\u00f6rnyezet kialakul\u00e1s\u00e1hoz vezethetne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Egy ilyen forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv eset\u00e9n a magas hozam\u00fa, vagyis kock\u00e1zatos min\u0151s\u00e9g\u0171 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1geszk\u00f6z\u00f6k fel\u00e1ra \u00e9rdemben emelkedne \u00e9s probl\u00e9m\u00e1s szinteket \u00e9rhetne el ezeknek az eszk\u00f6z\u00f6knek a refinansz\u00edroz\u00e1si kock\u00e1zata \u2013 fogalmaznak a Moody&#8217;s londoni elemz\u0151i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A recesszi\u00f3s kock\u00e1zat, a magasabb infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s az emelked\u0151 kamatok t\u00f6bb gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e1gazatra kiterjed\u0151 j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyhat\u00e1st id\u00e9zhetn\u00e9nek el\u0151, k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen olyan spekulat\u00edv \u2013 vagyis nem befektet\u00e9si aj\u00e1nl\u00e1s\u00fa \u2013 oszt\u00e1lyzattal ell\u00e1tott v\u00e1llalatok k\u00f6r\u00e9ben, amelyeknek 2023-ban vagy m\u00e9g kor\u00e1bban lej\u00e1r\u00f3 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gk\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geik vannak \u2013 hangs\u00falyozza keddi elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody&#8217;s szerint a glob\u00e1lis kiterjed\u00e9s\u0171 gazdas\u00e1gi szektorok k\u00f6z\u00fcl az aut\u00f3ipart is \u00e9rdemi kock\u00e1zatok terheln\u00e9k a kedvez\u0151tlenebb forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv megval\u00f3sul\u00e1sa eset\u00e9n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gban gy\u00e1rtott aut\u00f3ipari r\u00e9szegys\u00e9gek az amerikai \u00e9s az \u00e1zsiai gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3i h\u00e1l\u00f3zat\u00e1ban is jelen vannak, \u00e9s ha az eur\u00f3pai gy\u00e1ripart az orosz f\u00f6ldg\u00e1zsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sok le\u00e1ll\u00e1sa megfosztja energiaforr\u00e1sait\u00f3l, az le\u00e1ll\u00edthatja vagy jelent\u0151sen h\u00e1tr\u00e1ltathatja a vil\u00e1g \u00f6sszes aut\u00f3gy\u00e1rt\u00f3ja sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges r\u00e9szegys\u00e9gek gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s\u00e1t is, f\u0151leg olyan orsz\u00e1gokban, k\u00f6zt\u00fck N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gban, amelyek er\u0151sen f\u00fcggnek a f\u00f6ldg\u00e1zell\u00e1t\u00e1st\u00f3l \u2013 \u00e1ll a Moody&#8217;s elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u00e1s nagy londoni h\u00e1zak szerint az energiahordoz\u00f3-kereskedelem le\u00e1ll\u00e1sa ugyanakkor Oroszorsz\u00e1gban m\u00e9g s\u00falyosabb gazdas\u00e1gi v\u00e1ls\u00e1got okozna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az egyik legnagyobb londoni p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi-gazdas\u00e1gi elemz\u0151m\u0171hely, a Capital Economics jelenlegi alapeseti el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se azt val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edti, hogy az orosz hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k (GDP) az id\u00e9n 12 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zuhan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A h\u00e1znak ugyanakkor szint\u00e9n van egy sokkal er\u0151teljesebben negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve is arra az esetre, ha a szankci\u00f3k miatt teljesen le\u00e1llna az orosz nyersolaj- \u00e9s f\u00f6ldg\u00e1zexport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Capital Economics modellsz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sai szerint ebben az esetben az orosz GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k 25 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zuhanna az id\u00e9n, \u00e9s a rubel \u00e1rfolyama 200 rubel\/doll\u00e1rra gyeng\u00fclne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(MTI)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recesszi\u00f3ba sodorhatja a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1got az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00e1sa \u2013 \u00e1ll a Moody&#8217;s Investors Service Londonban ismertetett szektorelemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":7606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,41,33854,49,47,39],"tags":[1195,33797],"class_list":["post-22654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-hirek","category-velemenyek","category-vilag","tag-moodys-2","tag-ukran-orosz-haboru"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22654"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22654\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22665,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22654\/revisions\/22665"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7606"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}