{"id":24182,"date":"2022-05-22T17:50:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-22T14:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=24182"},"modified":"2022-05-22T13:38:26","modified_gmt":"2022-05-22T10:38:26","slug":"moodys-ukrajna-az-eddigieknel-is-nagyobb-adoskockazatot-jelzo-szintre-kerult","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=24182&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Moody&#8217;s: Ukrajna az eddigiekn\u00e9l is nagyobb ad\u00f3skock\u00e1zatot jelz\u0151 szintre ker\u00fclt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody&#8217;s Investors Service Ukrajn\u00e1t p\u00e9nteken az eddigiekn\u00e9l is nagyobb ad\u00f3skock\u00e1zatot jelz\u0151 szintre min\u0151s\u00edtette vissza. Mindezt azzal indokolta, hogy n\u00f6vekszenek az ukr\u00e1n ad\u00f3ss\u00e1ghelyzet fenntarthat\u00f3s\u00e1g\u00e1t terhel\u0151 kock\u00e1zatok az Ukrajna elleni orosz inv\u00e1zi\u00f3 elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00e1s\u00e1val.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"870\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/zavantazhennia-3b39e43a0cdcba3bfd1c478eb1a3d1da.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-12499\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/zavantazhennia-3b39e43a0cdcba3bfd1c478eb1a3d1da.jpg 870w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/zavantazhennia-3b39e43a0cdcba3bfd1c478eb1a3d1da-300x166.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/zavantazhennia-3b39e43a0cdcba3bfd1c478eb1a3d1da-768x424.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 870px) 100vw, 870px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A nemzetk\u00f6zi hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 p\u00e9ntek \u00e9jjel Londonban bejelentette, hogy az eddigi Caa2-r\u0151l egy fokozattal Caa3-ra min\u0151s\u00edtette vissza Ukrajna deviz\u00e1ban \u00e9s hazai valut\u00e1ban fenn\u00e1ll\u00f3 hossz\u00fa lej\u00e1rat\u00fa szuver\u00e9n ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1llom\u00e1ny\u00e1nak oszt\u00e1lyzat\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g az \u00faj besorol\u00e1son is tov\u00e1bbi lemin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9re utal\u00f3 negat\u00edv kil\u00e1t\u00e1st hagyott \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody\u2019s m\u00f3dszertani meghat\u00e1roz\u00e1sa alapj\u00e1n a Caa3 min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s nagyon magas ad\u00f3skock\u00e1zatra figyelmezteti a befektet\u0151ket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Caa3 besorol\u00e1s kilenc fokozattal marad el a befektet\u00e9si aj\u00e1nl\u00e1s\u00fa s\u00e1v alapfok\u00e1t\u00f3l, amely a Moody\u2019s oszt\u00e1lyzati metodik\u00e1ja alapj\u00e1n Baa3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A lemin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s indokl\u00e1s\u00e1ban a Moody\u2019s kiemeli azt a v\u00e9lem\u00e9ny\u00e9t, hogy j\u00f3llehet a nemzetk\u00f6zi k\u00f6z\u00f6ss\u00e9g Ukrajna nagyar\u00e1ny\u00fa p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s\u00e1ra v\u00e1llalt k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geket, \u00e9s ez enyh\u00edti az azonnali likvidit\u00e1si kock\u00e1zatokat, az \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g jelent\u0151s emelked\u00e9se azonban k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1von val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg fenntarthatatlannak bizonyul, \u00e9s az ebb\u0151l ered\u0151 agg\u00e1lyok h\u00e1tr\u00e1ltathatj\u00e1k Ukrajna tov\u00e1bbi hozz\u00e1f\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9t a kereskedelmi ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g t\u00f6rleszt\u00e9s\u00e9t c\u00e9lz\u00f3 hivatalos finansz\u00edroz\u00e1sokhoz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az elemz\u00e9s szerint az orosz inv\u00e1zi\u00f3val kezd\u0151d\u00f6tt katonai konfliktus a Moody\u2019s kezdeti v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sain\u00e1l hosszabb ideig elh\u00faz\u00f3dhat, \u00e9s ez n\u00f6veli annak a val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g\u00e9t, hogy sz\u00fcks\u00e9gess\u00e9 v\u00e1lik az ukr\u00e1n ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1llom\u00e1ny \u00e1tstruktur\u00e1l\u00e1sa, a mag\u00e1nszektorbeli hitelez\u0151ket pedig ek\u00f6zben vesztes\u00e9gek \u00e9rhetik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody\u2019s p\u00e9nteki el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint az ukr\u00e1n hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k (GDP) az id\u00e9n 35 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6r\u00fcli m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben zuhanhat re\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9ken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 becsl\u00e9se szerint a harcokt\u00f3l \u00e9rintett, illetve az orosz hader\u0151 \u00e1ltal elfoglalt ukrajnai t\u00e9rs\u00e9gek a h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tt megtermelt \u00e9ves ukr\u00e1n GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k 20 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t adt\u00e1k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody\u2019s az ukr\u00e1n \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-oszt\u00e1lyzat p\u00e9nteki lemin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9hez f\u0171z\u00f6tt indokl\u00e1s\u00e1ban kiemelte azt is, hogy becsl\u00e9se szerint az ukr\u00e1n \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1s idei finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si ig\u00e9nye hozz\u00e1vet\u0151leg 50 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r \u2013 a 2022-re v\u00e1rt hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k 35 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka \u2013 lesz, \u00e9s a GDP-ar\u00e1nyos \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-r\u00e1ta az id\u00e9n 90 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9re emelkedik a 2021 v\u00e9g\u00e9n m\u00e9rt 49 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 katonai konfliktusb\u00f3l ered\u0151 gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rok s\u00falyoss\u00e1ga hosszan tart\u00f3 negat\u00edv hat\u00e1sokat gyakorol az \u00e1llami finansz\u00edroz\u00e1sra, \u00e9s ez is n\u00f6veli az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1ghelyzet fenntarthat\u00f3s\u00e1g\u00e1t terhel\u0151 kock\u00e1zatokat \u2013 \u00e1ll a Moody\u2019s elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ukr\u00e1n gazdas\u00e1gban m\u00e1s nagy londoni elemz\u0151h\u00e1zak is \u00f6sszeoml\u00e1sszer\u0171 visszaes\u00e9st v\u00e1rnak az idei \u00e9vre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az Eur\u00f3pai \u00dajj\u00e1\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9si \u00e9s Fejleszt\u00e9si Bank (EBRD) a minap Londonban bemutatott, jelent\u0151sen rontott \u00e9ves t\u00e9rs\u00e9gi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9ben k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint az ukr\u00e1n hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k az id\u00e9n 30 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zuhan, \u00e9s ez a sz\u0171kebb kelet-eur\u00f3pai \u00e9s kauk\u00e1zusi r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban is \u00e1tlagosan 18,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos GDP-zuhan\u00e1st okoz 2022 eg\u00e9sz\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az EBRD Ukrajn\u00e1n k\u00edv\u00fcl \u00d6rm\u00e9nyorsz\u00e1got, Azerbajdzs\u00e1nt, Gr\u00fazi\u00e1t \u00e9s Moldov\u00e1t sorolta ebbe a csoportba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A londoni p\u00e9nzint\u00e9zet az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa miatt soron k\u00edv\u00fcl \u00f6ssze\u00e1ll\u00edtott el\u0151z\u0151, m\u00e1rciusi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sben 20 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos ukr\u00e1n gazdas\u00e1gi visszaes\u00e9st j\u00f3solt 2022-re, vagyis az\u00f3ta 10 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal rontotta tov\u00e1bb ezt a progn\u00f3zis\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Morgan Stanley glob\u00e1lis p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3 konglomer\u00e1tum felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 piacokkal foglalkoz\u00f3 londoni elemz\u0151st\u00e1bja e h\u00e9ten bemutatott helyzet\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9s\u00e9ben k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: k\u00f6zponti progn\u00f3zisa azzal sz\u00e1mol, hogy az ukr\u00e1n GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k 2022-ben 39 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zuhan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">(MTI\/<a href=\"https:\/\/hirado.hu\/kulfold\/cikk\/2022\/05\/21\/az-eddigieknel-is-nagyobb-adoskockazatot-jelzo-szintre-minositette-vissza-ukrajnat-a-moodys\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hirado.hu<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Moody&#8217;s Investors Service Ukrajn\u00e1t p\u00e9nteken az eddigiekn\u00e9l is nagyobb ad\u00f3skock\u00e1zatot jelz\u0151 szintre min\u0151s\u00edtette vissza. Mindezt azzal indokolta, hogy n\u00f6vekszenek az ukr\u00e1n ad\u00f3ss\u00e1ghelyzet fenntarthat\u00f3s\u00e1g\u00e1t terhel\u0151 kock\u00e1zatok az Ukrajna elleni orosz inv\u00e1zi\u00f3 elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00e1s\u00e1val.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":12499,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,49,17,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-surgos","category-ukrajna"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24182"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24182\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24183,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24182\/revisions\/24183"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12499"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}