{"id":29318,"date":"2022-09-12T21:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-12T18:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=29318"},"modified":"2022-09-12T15:26:57","modified_gmt":"2022-09-12T12:26:57","slug":"az-energiavalsag-es-az-inflacio-jocskan-betett-a-nemet-gazdasagnak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=29318&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g \u00e9s az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 j\u00f3csk\u00e1n betett a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gnak"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Jelent\u0151sen romlottak a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sai \u2013 der\u00fcl ki a m\u00fcncheni ifo gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zet\u00a0h\u00e9tf\u0151n publik\u00e1lt elemz\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A m\u00fcncheni egyetem int\u00e9zete (ifo Institut \u2013 Leibniz-Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen e.V.) legfrissebb negyed\u00e9ves progn\u00f3zis\u00e1ban cs\u00f6kkentette az idei \u00e9s a j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vre vonatkoz\u00f3 n\u00f6veked\u00e9si el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9t, mik\u00f6zben megemelte az ugyanerre az id\u0151szakra vonatkoz\u00f3 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A GDP 2022-ben 1,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal b\u0151v\u00fclhet a kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rt 2,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal szemben, m\u00edg az ifo v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint 2023-ban Eur\u00f3pa legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga 0,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zsugorodik. J\u00faniusi jelent\u00e9sben az ifo m\u00e9g 3,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos GDP-n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel sz\u00e1molt. Tavaly a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g 2,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal b\u0151v\u00fclt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az int\u00e9zet szerint negyed\u00e9ves \u00f6sszevet\u00e9sben a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g a 2022. harmadik negyed\u00e9ves stagn\u00e1l\u00e1s ut\u00e1n a negyedik negyed\u00e9vben 0,2, a j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9v els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben 0,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zsugorodik, amit a megemelkedett energiakiad\u00e1sokkal \u00e9s az elsz\u00e1ll\u00f3 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val indokoltak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAz Oroszorsz\u00e1gb\u00f3l \u00e9rkez\u0151 g\u00e1zsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sok \u00e9s a drasztikus \u00e1remelked\u00e9sek al\u00e1\u00e1st\u00e1k a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyt k\u00f6vet\u0151 gazdas\u00e1gi fellend\u00fcl\u00e9st\u201d \u2013 \u00e9rt\u00e9kelte az ifo progn\u00f3zis igazgat\u00f3ja, Timo Wollmershaeuser, aki szokatlannak nevezte, hogy ilyen m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben romlottak a n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok az el\u0151z\u0151, h\u00e1rom h\u00f3nappal kor\u00e1bbi jelent\u00e9shez k\u00e9pest. A b\u00e9rek v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3\u00e9rt\u00e9ke id\u00e9n \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151re is h\u00e1rom sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal eshet, amelyre az adatk\u00f6zl\u00e9s kezdete, 1970 \u00f3ta nem volt p\u00e9lda \u2013 tette hozz\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az ifo az idei infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokat 6,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 8,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra, a j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vit pedig 3,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 9,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelte. 2021-ben a fogyaszt\u00f3i \u00e1rak \u00e9ves \u00e1tlagos n\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00fcteme 3,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k volt. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 2023 els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben 11 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6r\u00fcl tet\u0151zhet a magas energia\u00e1rak miatt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az ifo elemz\u0151i szerint a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g 2024-ben t\u00e9rhet vissza a norm\u00e1lis kerekv\u00e1g\u00e1sba: a j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vi recesszi\u00f3t k\u00f6vet\u0151en a GDP 1,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal emelkedhet, mik\u00f6zben az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 2,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra lassulhat \u2013 \u00e1ll a jelent\u00e9sben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forr\u00e1s<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jelent\u0151sen romlottak a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sai \u2013 der\u00fcl ki a m\u00fcncheni ifo gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zet\u00a0h\u00e9tf\u0151n publik\u00e1lt elemz\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":29320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,41,49,39],"tags":[9043,86874],"class_list":["post-29318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-nemet-gazdasag","tag-romlo-tendencia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29318"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29318\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29321,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29318\/revisions\/29321"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29320"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}