{"id":29640,"date":"2022-09-20T20:30:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-20T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=29640"},"modified":"2022-09-20T12:52:31","modified_gmt":"2022-09-20T09:52:31","slug":"elkerulhetetlennek-tunik-az-euroovezet-recesszioja","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=29640&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Elker\u00fclhetetlennek t\u0171nik az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet recesszi\u00f3ja"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet recesszi\u00f3j\u00e1nak kock\u00e1zata 2020 j\u00faliusa \u00f3ta most a legmagasabb, mivel egyre n\u0151 az es\u00e9lye, hogy a t\u00e9li energiahi\u00e1ny a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9t okozza.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Bloomberg \u00e1ltal megk\u00e9rdezett k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok szerint most 80 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k a val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9ge, hogy a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 12 h\u00f3napban legal\u00e1bb k\u00e9t negyed\u00e9vben zsugorodni fog az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet gazdas\u00e1ga. Egy kor\u00e1bbi felm\u00e9r\u00e9sben ennek m\u00e9g csak 60 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k es\u00e9lyt adtak.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/gaz-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-29641\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/gaz-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/gaz-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/gaz-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/gaz.jpg 1108w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mivel N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g a g\u00e1zsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9nek legink\u00e1bb kitett orsz\u00e1gok k\u00f6z\u00e9 tartozik, ez\u00e9rt az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg m\u00e1r ebben a negyed\u00e9vben is gazdas\u00e1gi visszaes\u00e9ssel fog k\u00fczdeni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 12 h\u00f3napban t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 recesszi\u00f3j\u00e1ra 80 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos es\u00e9lyt l\u00e1tnak. Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g. A g\u00e1zsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9nek legink\u00e1bb kitett orsz\u00e1gok k\u00f6z\u00e9 tartozik, ez\u00e9rt gazdas\u00e1ga val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg m\u00e1r ebben a negyed\u00e9vben is zsugorodni fog \u2013 \u00edrta meg a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-09-19\/euro-area-recession-now-looks-almost-inevitable-to-economists?srnd=premium-europe&amp;sref=lAelTOaG\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az eur\u00f3pai h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok \u00e9s v\u00e1llalatok energiahi\u00e1nnyal n\u00e9zhetnek szembe, miut\u00e1n Oroszorsz\u00e1gb\u00f3l le\u00e1llt a t\u00e9rs\u00e9gbe ir\u00e1nyul\u00f3 g\u00e1zsz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s, \u00e9s m\u00e1r most is rekordmagas infl\u00e1ci\u00f3val \u00e9s ell\u00e1t\u00e1si gondokkal k\u00fczdenek. A felm\u00e9r\u00e9sek szerint m\u00e1r j\u00falius \u00f3ta cs\u00f6kken a gazdas\u00e1gi aktivit\u00e1s, \u00e9s a k\u00f6zelj\u00f6v\u0151ben sem sok j\u00f3ra lehet sz\u00e1m\u00edtani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezeti infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 id\u00e9n az \u00e9v utols\u00f3 h\u00e1rom h\u00f3napj\u00e1ban v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an 9,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kon tet\u0151zik, ami az Eur\u00f3pai K\u00f6zponti Bank c\u00e9lj\u00e1nak csaknem \u00f6tsz\u00f6r\u00f6se. A Bloombergnek v\u00e1laszol\u00f3 k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok szerint 2024-ig nem fogja megk\u00f6zel\u00edteni az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 a 2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos jegybanki c\u00e9lt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u00edg az Eur\u00f3pai K\u00f6zponti Bank (EKB) tisztvisel\u0151i azt j\u00f3solj\u00e1k, hogy az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet gazdas\u00e1ga csak stagn\u00e1lni fog, nem pedig zsugorodni, egyre jobban agg\u00f3dnak az eur\u00f3z\u00f3na n\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00e9s infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s kil\u00e1t\u00e1sai miatt. Christine Lagarde eln\u00f6k \u00e9s koll\u00e9g\u00e1i szerint nagyobb kamatemel\u00e9sek v\u00e1ltak indokoltt\u00e1 a dr\u00e1gul\u00e1s megf\u00e9kez\u00e9s\u00e9re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Bloombergnek v\u00e1laszol\u00f3 k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok szerint az EKB hamarabb sz\u00fcneteltetheti kamatemel\u00e9si ciklus\u00e1t, de febru\u00e1rig magasabbra emelheti a kamatot. Az elemz\u0151k t\u00f6bb mint fele 75 b\u00e1zispontos emel\u00e9sre sz\u00e1m\u00edt az EKB okt\u00f3beri kamatd\u00f6nt\u0151 \u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Philip Lane vezet\u0151 k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1sz a m\u00falt h\u00e9ten azt mondta, hogy az EKB szokatlanul nagym\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 kamatemel\u00e9se ebben a h\u00f3napban megfelel\u0151 volt, ugyanakkor jelezte, hogy a j\u00f6v\u0151beni l\u00e9p\u00e9sek val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg kisebbek lesznek. M\u00e1s EKB-tisztvisel\u0151k a legut\u00f3bbi d\u00f6nt\u00e9s ut\u00e1n azt nyilatkozt\u00e1k a Bloombergnek, hogy sz\u00f3ba j\u00f6het egy \u00fajabb 75 b\u00e1zispontos kamatemel\u00e9s is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/index.hu\/gazdasag\/2022\/09\/19\/gazdasag-kulfold-euroovezet-nemetorszag-recesszio-gazdasagi-visszaeses-bloomberg\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(index.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezet recesszi\u00f3j\u00e1nak kock\u00e1zata 2020 j\u00faliusa \u00f3ta most a legmagasabb, mivel egyre n\u0151 az es\u00e9lye, hogy a t\u00e9li energiahi\u00e1ny a gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9t okozza.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":29641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,11,39],"tags":[27972,642,88922],"class_list":["post-29640","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-vilag","tag-euroovezet-2","tag-inflacio","tag-recessszio"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29640","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29640"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29640\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29642,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29640\/revisions\/29642"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29641"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29640"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29640"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29640"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}