{"id":3371,"date":"2020-04-18T18:06:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-18T15:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=3371"},"modified":"2020-04-18T14:46:16","modified_gmt":"2020-04-18T11:46:16","slug":"nehez-idok-varnak-az-egyesult-kiralysagra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=3371&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Neh\u00e9z id\u0151k j\u00f6nnek az Egyes\u00fclt Kir\u00e1lys\u00e1gban"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Londoni p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi\nelemz\u0151k p\u00e9nteki el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint legal\u00e1bb h\u00e1rom \u00e9vbe telik, mire a brit\ngazdas\u00e1g ism\u00e9t el\u00e9ri a 2019-es szintet, az \u00faj t\u00edpus\u00fa koronav\u00edrus okozta j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny\nel\u0151tti teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9t, de egyes aktivit\u00e1si mutat\u00f3knak ugyanehhez ak\u00e1r \u00f6t \u00e9vre\nis sz\u00fcks\u00e9g\u00fck lehet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az egyik legnagyobb londoni elemz\u0151m\u0171hely, a Capital\nEconomics p\u00e9ntek este bemutatott tanulm\u00e1ny\u00e1ban vit\u00e1ba sz\u00e1ll egy m\u00e1sik nagy\nel\u0151rejelz\u0151 k\u00f6zpont, az Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) progn\u00f3zis\u00e1val.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"alignleft size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"299\" height=\"168\" src=\"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/brexit.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1542\"\/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A brit korm\u00e1ny sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra is makrogazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si\nel\u0151rejelz\u00e9seket k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u0151, de egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt f\u00fcggetlen gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zetk\u00e9nt\nm\u0171k\u00f6d\u0151 OBR e h\u00e9ten ismertetett helyzet\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9s\u00e9ben azt val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edtette, hogy\na brit hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k (GDP) az idei m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9vben 35 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal zuhan negyed\u00e9ves\n\u00f6sszevet\u00e9sben, de a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny megf\u00e9kez\u00e9s\u00e9t c\u00e9lz\u00f3 korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok felold\u00e1sa ut\u00e1n\nugyanilyen meredek \u00fctemben visszat\u00e9r kor\u00e1bbi szintj\u00e9re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Capital Economics londoni elemz\u0151i szerint azonban ilyen\nt\u00f6k\u00e9letes V alak\u00fa p\u00e1lya \u201ecsak a tank\u00f6nyvekben l\u00e9tezik, a val\u00f3s\u00e1gban nem\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A h\u00e1z k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: saj\u00e1t modellsz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sai arra vallanak, hogy a\nbrit GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k a m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9vben 25 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal esik \u2013 vagyis el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se\nnem annyira komor, mint az OBR progn\u00f3zisa \u2013, becsl\u00e9se szerint viszont a hazai\n\u00f6sszterm\u00e9k 2022 v\u00e9g\u00e9ig nem \u00e9ri el az idei \u00e9v elej\u00e9n m\u00e9rt szintet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Capital Economics v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint a nagy-britanniai\nmunkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9gi r\u00e1ta a jelenlegi 4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6zel\u00e9be emelkedik,\na h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok re\u00e1lj\u00f6vedelme csaknem 10 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal cs\u00f6kken, \u00e9s t\u00f6bb mint\nsz\u00e1zezer \u00fczleti v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1s jut cs\u0151dbe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ezek a hat\u00e1sok a korl\u00e1toz\u00f3 int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek felold\u00e1sa ut\u00e1n is\nhossz\u00fa ideig sz\u0171k\u00edtik majd a brit h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok \u00e9s az \u00fczleti v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok\nkiad\u00e1si mozg\u00e1ster\u00e9t, r\u00e1ad\u00e1sul a v\u00e1llalatok \u00e9s a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok a korl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok\nut\u00e1ni id\u0151szakban is arra a k\u00f6vetkeztet\u00e9sre juthatnak, hogy \u201e\u00e9rtelmes dolog\u201d a\nmegtakar\u00edt\u00e1sok n\u00f6vel\u00e9se \u00e9s a k\u00f6ltekez\u00e9s visszafog\u00e1sa \u2013 hangs\u00falyozz\u00e1k a c\u00e9g\nlondoni elemz\u0151i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Capital Economics sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sai szerint ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben\na h\u00e1ztart\u00e1si kiad\u00e1sok \u00e9s a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok \u00e9rt\u00e9ke m\u00e9g h\u00e1rom \u00e9v m\u00falva is csaknem 10\nsz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal elmaradhat a koronav\u00edrus-v\u00e1ls\u00e1g el\u0151tti szintt\u0151l, \u00e9s \u00f6t \u00e9vbe telhet\n\u2013 vagyis 2025 v\u00e9g\u00e9ig is eltarthat \u2013, mire ez a k\u00e9t aktivit\u00e1si mutat\u00f3 \u00fajb\u00f3l\nel\u00e9ri a legut\u00f3bb m\u00e9rt cs\u00facsot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(hirado.hu)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Londoni p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi elemz\u0151k p\u00e9nteki el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint legal\u00e1bb h\u00e1rom \u00e9vbe telik, mire a brit gazdas\u00e1g ism\u00e9t el\u00e9ri a 2019-es szintet, az \u00faj t\u00edpus\u00fa koronav\u00edrus okozta j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny el\u0151tti teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9t, de egyes aktivit\u00e1si mutat\u00f3knak ugyanehhez ak\u00e1r \u00f6t \u00e9vre is sz\u00fcks\u00e9g\u00fck lehet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":1542,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,49,39],"tags":[815,382],"class_list":["post-3371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-egyesult-kiralysag","tag-gazdasag"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3371"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3371\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}