{"id":35327,"date":"2023-02-23T21:55:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-23T19:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=35327"},"modified":"2023-02-23T17:30:07","modified_gmt":"2023-02-23T15:30:07","slug":"a-haboru-tavaly-1600-milliard-dollar-kiesest-okozhatott-a-vilaggazdasagban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=35327&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"A h\u00e1bor\u00fa tavaly 1600 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r kies\u00e9st okozhatott a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gban"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00f6bb mint 1600 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ros kies\u00e9st okozott Oroszorsz\u00e1g Ukrajna elleni h\u00e1bor\u00faja tavaly a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gban egy n\u00e9met becsl\u00e9s ismertet\u00e9se szerint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"663\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ua-ru-haboru-gazdasag-1024x663.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35328\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ua-ru-haboru-gazdasag-1024x663.webp 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ua-ru-haboru-gazdasag-300x194.webp 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ua-ru-haboru-gazdasag-768x498.webp 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ua-ru-haboru-gazdasag-1536x995.webp 1536w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/ua-ru-haboru-gazdasag-2048x1327.webp 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A n\u00e9met nyelvter\u00fclet legtekint\u00e9lyesebb gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zetei k\u00f6z\u00e9 tartoz\u00f3 k\u00f6lni IW (Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft K\u00f6ln e. V.) becsl\u00e9se szerint a fejlett gazdas\u00e1gok kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1sa nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l 1100 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rral maradt el tavaly att\u00f3l a szintt\u0151l, amelyet az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fa hat\u00e1sai n\u00e9lk\u00fcl el\u00e9rhettek volna, a felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 \u00e9s a fejl\u0151d\u0151 orsz\u00e1gok gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1ban pedig 550 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r k\u00f6r\u00fcl lehetett a kies\u00e9s. Az id\u00e9n vil\u00e1gszerte tov\u00e1bbi ezer milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r termel\u00e9skies\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az IW sz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sainak alapja a Nemezk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF) 2021 \u0151szi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se az egyes orsz\u00e1gok hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k\u00e9nek (GDP) 2022-es \u00e9s 2023-as alakul\u00e1s\u00e1r\u00f3l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seket a 2022-es t\u00e9nysz\u00e1mokkal \u00e9s az IMF 2023-ra adott \u00faj progn\u00f3zis\u00e1val vetett\u00e9k \u00f6ssze.<br>A kutat\u00e1sr\u00f3l kiadott t\u00e1j\u00e9koztat\u00f3jukban kiemelt\u00e9k, hogy 2021 v\u00e9g\u00e9n m\u00e9g nem lehetett sz\u00e1m\u00edtani a h\u00e1bor\u00faval \u00e9s szerte\u00e1gaz\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi hat\u00e1saival, arr\u00f3l sz\u00f3ltak az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek, hogy a t\u00e1rsadalmi \u00e9s gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9let a koronav\u00edrus-vil\u00e1gj\u00e1rv\u00e1ny k\u00e9t \u00e9ve ut\u00e1n visszat\u00e9r a r\u00e9gi ker\u00e9kv\u00e1g\u00e1sba, enyh\u00fclnek az alapanyag-ell\u00e1t\u00e1si \u00e9s sz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1si zavarok, normaliz\u00e1l\u00f3dik a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1si tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Azonban a h\u00e1bor\u00fa a megt\u00e1madott orsz\u00e1gban okozott emberi szenved\u00e9s mellett s\u00falyos vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyekkel is j\u00e1r, vil\u00e1gszerte sz\u00e1mos v\u00e1llalatn\u00e1l okozott \u201etermel\u00e9si sokkot\u201d az energiaell\u00e1t\u00e1s bizonytalans\u00e1g\u00e1t \u00e9s az energia \u00e1r\u00e1nak emelked\u00e9s\u00e9t jelent\u0151 energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g r\u00e9v\u00e9n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g nemcsak v\u00e1llalati szinten jelentkezik, hanem eg\u00e9sz termel\u00e9si-ell\u00e1t\u00e1si l\u00e1ncolatokban, \u00e9s az energia, valamint az ipari nyersanyagok mellett a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gi alapanyagok \u2013 p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a gabona \u2013 piac\u00e1nak m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9ben is zavarokat okozott, \u201esz\u0171k ell\u00e1t\u00e1si keresztmetszetek\u201d kialakul\u00e1s\u00e1hoz vezetett, f\u0151leg a fejl\u0151d\u0151 orsz\u00e1gokban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A sokkhat\u00e1sk\u00e9nt jelentkez\u0151 h\u00e1bor\u00fas eredet\u0171 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gemelked\u00e9s a termel\u0151i \u00e1rak ut\u00e1n a fogyaszt\u00f3i \u00e1rakat is felhajtotta, a magas infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 pedig cs\u00f6kkenti a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok v\u00e1s\u00e1rl\u00f3erej\u00e9t, \u00e9s visszaveti a fogyaszt\u00e1si cikkek kereslet\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mindemellett az ism\u00e9t egyre bizonytalanabb kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok \u00e9s a kamatemel\u00e9sek r\u00e9v\u00e9n n\u00f6veked\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek visszavetik a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00cdgy a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny ut\u00e1n ism\u00e9t vesz\u00edt lend\u00fclet\u00e9b\u0151l, b\u00e1r a fejlett gazdas\u00e1gokban volt lehet\u0151s\u00e9g a \u201eh\u00e1bor\u00fas \u00e1rsokk\u201d ellens\u00falyoz\u00e1s\u00e1t szolg\u00e1l\u00f3 nagyszab\u00e1s\u00fa gazdas\u00e1g\u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00edt\u0151 programokra \u2013 fejtett\u00e9k ki az IW k\u00f6zlem\u00e9ny\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hozz\u00e1tett\u00e9k, hogy a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g \u00fajabb lend\u00fcletveszt\u00e9se ugyan els\u0151sorban Oroszorsz\u00e1g Ukrajna elleni t\u00e1mad\u00e1s\u00e1nak tulajdon\u00edthat\u00f3, de nem lehet minden f\u00e9kez\u0151 hat\u00e1st a h\u00e1bor\u00fa sz\u00e1ml\u00e1j\u00e1ra \u00edrni. \u00cdgy p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban kialakult magas infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 ink\u00e1bb tulajdon\u00edthat\u00f3 belgazdas\u00e1gi folyamatoknak, mint a h\u00e1bor\u00fab\u00f3l fakad\u00f3 glob\u00e1lis energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1gnak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny \u0151szi-t\u00e9li k\u00ednai elm\u00e9ly\u00fcl\u00e9se \u00e9s a helyi j\u00e1rv\u00e1nykezel\u00e9si politika megv\u00e1ltoztat\u00e1sa val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg ugyancsak gazdas\u00e1gi vesztes\u00e9gekkel j\u00e1r majd, \u00e9s a glob\u00e1lis \u00e9rt\u00e9kteremt\u00e9si l\u00e1ncokon kereszt\u00fcl az eg\u00e9sz vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gra f\u00e9kez\u0151 hat\u00e1ssal lehet \u2013 \u00edrt\u00e1k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(MTI)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00f6bb mint 1600 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ros kies\u00e9st okozott Oroszorsz\u00e1g Ukrajna elleni h\u00e1bor\u00faja tavaly a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1gban egy n\u00e9met becsl\u00e9s ismertet\u00e9se szerint.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":35328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,41,33854,49,39],"tags":[6243,33797,711],"class_list":["post-35327","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-kieses","tag-ukran-orosz-haboru","tag-vilaggazdasag"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35327","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35327"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35327\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35329,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35327\/revisions\/35329"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/35328"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35327"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35327"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35327"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}