{"id":35551,"date":"2023-03-01T12:38:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-01T10:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=35551"},"modified":"2023-03-01T05:45:51","modified_gmt":"2023-03-01T03:45:51","slug":"nemetorszag-technikai-recesszioba-sullyedhet-a-gazdasag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=35551&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g: Technikai recesszi\u00f3ba s\u00fcllyedhet a gazdas\u00e1g"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A mutat\u00f3 teh\u00e1t az elm\u00falt n\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00f3nap javul\u00f3 tendenci\u00e1ja ut\u00e1n ism\u00e9t t\u00e1volodott a semleges \u00e9rt\u00e9ket jelent\u0151 100 pontos hat\u00e1rt\u00f3l. A DIW Berlin ez alapj\u00e1n az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9vre is n\u00e9mi GDP-cs\u00f6kken\u00e9st prognosztiz\u00e1l az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9vre a negyedik negyed\u00e9vi 0,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s ut\u00e1n.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9vt\u0151l azonban m\u00e1r n\u00f6veked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 a DIW meg\u00edt\u00e9l\u00e9se szerint, hiszen a kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok meg\u00edt\u00e9l\u00e9se l\u00e9nyegesen jobb a tavaly \u00e9v m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben tapasztaltn\u00e1l. Akkor az \u0151szi h\u00f3napokban 74,3 ponton \u00e9rte el a legalacsonyabb pontj\u00e1t a konjunkt\u00farabarom\u00e9ter, a negyedik negyed\u00e9ves pedig 87,3 pont lett. Az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9ves konjunkt\u00farabarom\u00e9tert a m\u00e1rciusi \u00e9rt\u00e9k ismeret\u00e9ben kalkul\u00e1lja majd a DIW.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/nemetorszag-1.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-35553\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Magas marad az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok javul\u00e1s\u00e1hoz nagyban hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rult az enyhe t\u00e9l \u00e9s az energia\u00e1rak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se, az energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g legal\u00e1bbis \u00e1tmeneti enyh\u00fcl\u00e9se. A jelek szerint az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 is t\u00fall\u00e9pett a cs\u00facsponton, b\u00e1r val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg m\u00e9g egy ideig magas marad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g a t\u00e9li f\u00e9l\u00e9vben lassul\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi f\u00e1zisba ker\u00fcl, \u00e9s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg technikai recesszi\u00f3ba cs\u00faszik, azaz k\u00e9t egym\u00e1st k\u00f6vet\u0151 negyed\u00e9vben cs\u00f6kken negyed\u00e9ves b\u00e1zison a brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eA n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1g m\u00e9g nem l\u00e9pett t\u00fal a m\u00e9lyponton\u201d \u2013 k\u00f6z\u00f6lte Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, a DIW makrogazdas\u00e1gi oszt\u00e1ly\u00e1nak t\u00e1rsvezet\u0151je.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rosszul indult az \u00e9v<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6sszess\u00e9g\u00e9ben a helyzet nem k\u00f6nny\u0171, az ipari termel\u00e9s az \u00e9v kezdet\u00e9n visszaesett, els\u0151sorban az energiaig\u00e9nyes \u00e1gazatokat igen \u00e9rz\u00e9kenyen \u00e9rint\u0151 energiav\u00e1ls\u00e1g miatt. A n\u00e9met v\u00e1llalatok meglehet\u0151sen nagy feldolgozatlan megrendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1nya azonban bizakod\u00e1sra ad okot a neh\u00e9z id\u0151k \u00e1tv\u00e9szel\u00e9s\u00e9hez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A szolg\u00e1ltat\u00f3ipari \u00e1gazatokb\u00f3l a DIW meg\u00edt\u00e9l\u00e9se szerint nem v\u00e1rhat\u00f3k pozit\u00edv impulzusok a gazdas\u00e1gi fejl\u0151d\u00e9sre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A magas infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 miatt sokak re\u00e1lb\u00e9re cs\u00f6kken, ami m\u00e1r a kar\u00e1csonyi szezonban is visszafogta a lakoss\u00e1gi fogyaszt\u00e1si kiad\u00e1sokat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A fogyaszt\u00f3i hangulat azonban az ut\u00f3bbi id\u0151ben n\u00e9mileg javult. A m\u00e9g mindig er\u0151s munkaer\u0151piaccal egy\u00fctt a fogyaszt\u00f3k most m\u00e1r bizakod\u00f3bbak a j\u00f6v\u0151t illet\u0151en.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jelenleg nincs jele az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 gyors cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9nek vagy a vil\u00e1ggazdas\u00e1g \u00e9rezhet\u0151 fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u2013 mindkett\u0151 tov\u00e1bbra is teherk\u00e9nt hat a n\u00e9met gazdas\u00e1gra \u2013 \u00f6sszegezt\u00e9k a szak\u00e9rt\u0151k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.napi.hu\/nemzetkozi-gazdasag\/recesszio-nemetorszag-inflacio-gdp-konjunktura.768089.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(napi.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A mutat\u00f3 teh\u00e1t az elm\u00falt n\u00e9h\u00e1ny h\u00f3nap javul\u00f3 tendenci\u00e1ja ut\u00e1n ism\u00e9t t\u00e1volodott a semleges \u00e9rt\u00e9ket jelent\u0151 100 pontos hat\u00e1rt\u00f3l. A DIW Berlin ez alapj\u00e1n az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9vre is n\u00e9mi GDP-cs\u00f6kken\u00e9st prognosztiz\u00e1l az els\u0151 negyed\u00e9vre a negyedik negyed\u00e9vi 0,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s ut\u00e1n.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":35552,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,11,39],"tags":[9043,135,149149],"class_list":["post-35551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-vilag","tag-nemet-gazdasag","tag-nemetorszag","tag-technikai-recesszio"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35551"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35551\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35554,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35551\/revisions\/35554"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/35552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}