{"id":39854,"date":"2023-07-10T12:43:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T09:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=39854"},"modified":"2023-07-10T09:37:52","modified_gmt":"2023-07-10T06:37:52","slug":"javultak-az-imf-az-ukrajnaval-kapcsolatos-gazdasagi-elorejelzesei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=39854&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Javultak az IMF az Ukrajn\u00e1val kapcsolatos gazdas\u00e1gi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sei"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Ukrajn\u00e1ban a re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9se m\u00e1jusban m\u00e1r el\u00e9rte a \u201eplusz\u201d 2,4%-ot a tavaly \u00e9v v\u00e9gi \u201em\u00ednusz\u201d 29,1%-hoz k\u00e9pest, mik\u00f6zben az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 cs\u00f6kkent, a devizapiaci felt\u00e9telek pedig javultak \u2013 \u00e1ll az IMF p\u00e9nteken k\u00f6zz\u00e9tett dokumentum\u00e1ban<\/a>, amely az ukrajnai fokozott finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si program (EFF) els\u0151 fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lat\u00e1nak eredm\u00e9nyei alapj\u00e1n k\u00e9sz\u00fclt, sz\u00e1molt be az Ukrinform.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201eAz adatok legfrissebb elemz\u00e9se stabilabb gazdas\u00e1gi tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9get jelez, mint az EFF-program j\u00f3v\u00e1hagy\u00e1sakor\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll a dokumentumban.<\/p>\n\n\n

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T\u00f6bbek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt javultak a 2022-es re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9si mutat\u00f3i felfel\u00e9 (m\u00ednusz 30,3%-r\u00f3l m\u00ednusz 29,1%-ra). Ez a tavalyi IV. negyed\u00e9vben tapasztalt er\u0151sebb dinamik\u00e1nak k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151, amikor az ukrajnai v\u00e1llalatok \u00e9s c\u00e9gek alkalmazkodtak az \u00e1ramsz\u00fcnethez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emellett 2023 els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben a GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9se \u201eplusz\u201d 2,4%-ra n\u0151tt, ami \u201ea gazdas\u00e1gi aktivit\u00e1s jelent\u0151s fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t jelzi\u201d, valamint a v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok \u00e9s a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok tov\u00e1bbi alkalmazkod\u00e1s\u00e1t a h\u00e1bor\u00fa k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyei k\u00f6z\u00f6tt. \u201eA v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok k\u00f6r\u00e9ben v\u00e9gzett felm\u00e9r\u00e9sek meger\u0151s\u00edtik a hangulat javul\u00e1s\u00e1t\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll a dokumentumban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ugyanakkor a kahovkai-g\u00e1t megsemmis\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t el\u0151re nem l\u00e1that\u00f3 kock\u00e1zatk\u00e9nt jelzik, amely \u201ehat\u00e1ssal lehet a n\u00f6veked\u00e9sre a term\u0151f\u00f6ld elveszt\u00e9se, a migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s az ipari l\u00e9tes\u00edtm\u00e9nyek m\u0171k\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9nek fennakad\u00e1sai miatt, bele\u00e9rtve a v\u00edz- \u00e9s \u00e1ramhi\u00e1nyt\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrajn\u00e1ban 2023 m\u00e1jus\u00e1ban az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9ves szinten 15,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kkent a 2022 v\u00e9gi 26,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3alap (amely nem tartalmazza az \u00e9lelmiszer- \u00e9s energia\u00e1rak v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s\u00e1t) szint\u00e9n 15,6%-ra m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151d\u00f6tt m\u00e1jusban a 2022 v\u00e9gi 22,6%-r\u00f3l. Amint azt az IMF is megjegyezte, ez t\u00fckr\u00f6zte az \u00e9lelmiszer- \u00e9s \u00fczemanyag-ell\u00e1t\u00e1s optimaliz\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1ra ir\u00e1nyul\u00f3 er\u0151fesz\u00edt\u00e9seket, az energiaszektor gyors fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t a t\u00e1mad\u00e1sok ut\u00e1n, valamint a hrivnya k\u00e9szp\u00e9nz \u00e1rfolyam\u00e1nak er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Megjegyezt\u00e9k, j\u00faniust\u00f3l t\u00f6bb mint 60%-kal emelkedtek a lakoss\u00e1gi \u00e1ramd\u00edjak, ez azonban az alacsony b\u00e1zis miatt kev\u00e9ss\u00e9 befoly\u00e1solja az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrajn\u00e1ban a devizapiaci felt\u00e9telek javultak a folyamatos k\u00fcls\u0151 t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s \u00e9s a szezon\u00e1lis t\u00e9nyez\u0151k, t\u00f6bbek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a mez\u0151gazdas\u00e1gi termel\u0151k devizaelad\u00e1sai ok\u00e1n. A hivatalos \u00e9s a k\u00e9szp\u00e9nzes \u00e1rfolyamok k\u00f6z\u00f6tti k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g m\u00e1rcius \u00f3ta 2-4% k\u00f6r\u00fcl stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dott, m\u00edg a jegybank havi nett\u00f3 deviza\u00e1rbev\u00e9tele m\u00e1rcius-m\u00e1jusban 1,6 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ron stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3dott, szemben a t\u00e9li 2,9 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az IMF ugyanakkor r\u00e1mutatott a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1nymutat\u00f3k roml\u00e1s\u00e1ra a tavalyihoz k\u00e9pest, \u201emivel 2023 els\u0151 n\u00e9gy h\u00f3napj\u00e1ban a magasabb bev\u00e9teleket b\u0151ven ellens\u00falyozt\u00e1k a magasabb kiad\u00e1sok\u201d. Ezzel kapcsolatban meg kell jegyezni, hogy a teljes k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny az \u00e9v els\u0151 n\u00e9gy h\u00f3napj\u00e1ban el\u00e9rte a 185 milli\u00e1rd hrivny\u00e1t, szemben a tavalyi \u00e9v azonos id\u0151szaka 130 milli\u00e1rd hrivny\u00e1j\u00e1val.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az Ukrinform besz\u00e1mol\u00f3ja szerint az ukr\u00e1n p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyminiszt\u00e9rium arra sz\u00e1m\u00edt, hogy 2023-ban a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelkedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<!–translatorid:ild5234 –><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukrajn\u00e1ban a re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9se m\u00e1jusban m\u00e1r el\u00e9rte a \u201eplusz\u201d 2,4%-ot a tavaly \u00e9v v\u00e9gi \u201em\u00ednusz\u201d 29,1%-hoz k\u00e9pest, mik\u00f6zben az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 cs\u00f6kkent, a devizapiaci felt\u00e9telek pedig javultak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":39800,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,17,33],"tags":[3536,623,172793,120],"class_list":["post-39854","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-surgos","category-ukrajna","tag-gazdasagi-elorejelzes","tag-imf","tag-real-gdp","tag-ukrajna-hu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39854","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39854"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39854\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39855,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39854\/revisions\/39855"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/39800"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39854"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39854"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39854"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}