{"id":41540,"date":"2023-09-08T20:20:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-08T17:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=41540"},"modified":"2023-09-08T20:06:10","modified_gmt":"2023-09-08T17:06:10","slug":"az-idei-ev-vegeig-nem-ertekelodik-le-a-hrivnya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=41540&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az idei \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9ig nem \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151dik le a hrivnya"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank (NBU) 2023 v\u00e9g\u00e9n vagy a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9v elej\u00e9n felmondhatja a hrivnya doll\u00e1rhoz viszony\u00edtott r\u00f6gz\u00edtett \u00e1rfolyam\u00e1r\u00f3l, de ez csak enyhe le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9shez vezet \u2013 k\u00f6z\u00f6lte p\u00e9nteken az <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ua\/rus\/news\/devalvatsiya-vidkladaetsya-kim-mozhe-buti-1694154595.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rbc.ua<\/a> h\u00edrport\u00e1l a Dragon Capital befektet\u00e9si c\u00e9g el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9re hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"650\" height=\"410\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/valuta-dollar.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-41541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/valuta-dollar.jpg 650w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/valuta-dollar-300x189.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Dragon Capital progn\u00f3zisa szerint az ukr\u00e1n gazdas\u00e1g \u00e9s devizapiac tov\u00e1bbra is magas ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3 k\u00e9pess\u00e9get mutat a h\u00e1bor\u00fas sokkokkal szemben. A nemzetk\u00f6zi finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s tov\u00e1bbra is l\u00e9tfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa t\u00e1mogat\u00e1st ny\u00fajt az ukr\u00e1n gazdas\u00e1gnak \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi rendszernek. Az idei \u00e9v 8 h\u00f3napja sor\u00e1n a nemzetk\u00f6zi partnerek csaknem 30 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt utaltak Ukrajn\u00e1nak a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s\u00e1ra (ebb\u0151l 8,7 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt, azaz 29%-ot t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s form\u00e1j\u00e1ban), ami lehet\u0151v\u00e9 tette az erre az id\u0151szakra vonatkoz\u00f3 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny teljes finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s\u00e1t \u00e9s majdnem megdupl\u00e1zta a devizaelad\u00e1s \u00f6sszeg\u00e9t az NBU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ennek eredm\u00e9nyek\u00e9nt az NBU tartal\u00e9kai \u00faj t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi maximumra, 41,7 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra emelkedtek j\u00faliusban. B\u00e1r a tartal\u00e9kok augusztusban 40,4 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra cs\u00f6kkentek az USA-t\u00f3l \u00e9rkez\u0151 t\u00e1mogat\u00e1si r\u00e9szlet k\u00e9s\u00e9se miatt, a szintj\u00fck tov\u00e1bbra is magas az el\u00e9gs\u00e9ges krit\u00e9riumokhoz k\u00e9pest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eA kor\u00e1bbiakhoz hasonl\u00f3an \u00fagy gondoljuk, hogy a nemzetk\u00f6zi tartal\u00e9kok magas szintje, a nemzetk\u00f6zi partnerek t\u00e1mogat\u00e1sa, a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s\u00e1nak megtagad\u00e1sa az NBU r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l \u00e9s az \u00e1rfolyam-v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok stabiliz\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1sa megteremti a felt\u00e9teleket a devizakorl\u00e1toz\u00e1sok tov\u00e1bbi enyh\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9hez \u00e9s a hrivnya \u00e1rfolyam\u00e1nak az amerikai doll\u00e1rral szembeni m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt rugalmass\u00e1g\u00e1hoz t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 visszat\u00e9r\u00e9shez m\u00e1r ebben az \u00e9vben\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Dragon Capital elemz\u0151i \u00fagy v\u00e9lik, hogy az NBU tov\u00e1bbra is elt\u00f6k\u00e9lt az \u00e1rfolyam-politika megv\u00e1ltoztat\u00e1sa mellett, de a kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l \u00f3vatosabban \u00e9s lassabban halad ebben az ir\u00e1nyban, nyilv\u00e1nval\u00f3an a magas kock\u00e1zatokat figyelembe v\u00e9ve. \u201eArra sz\u00e1m\u00edtunk, hogy az idei \u00e9v negyedik negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben v\u00e1ltozhat az \u00e1rfolyam-politika, de nem z\u00e1rjuk ki, hogy az NBU 2024 elej\u00e9ig v\u00e1r\u201d \u2013 olvashat\u00f3 az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Dragon Capital \u00fagy v\u00e9li tov\u00e1bb\u00e1, hogy a h\u00e1bor\u00fa el\u0151tti \u00e1rfolyamk\u00e9pz\u00e9si rendszerhez val\u00f3 visszat\u00e9r\u00e9s kezdeti szakasz\u00e1ban az NBU szoros ellen\u0151rz\u00e9s alatt fogja tartani az \u00e1rfolyamot, lehet\u0151v\u00e9 t\u00e9ve a kisebb r\u00f6vidt\u00e1v\u00fa ingadoz\u00e1sokat mindk\u00e9t ir\u00e1nyban, de biztos\u00edtva, hogy az \u00f6sszes\u00edtett \u00e1rfolyam dinamik\u00e1ja megfeleljen a fizet\u00e9si m\u00e9rleg fundament\u00e1lis \u00e1llapot\u00e1nak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eEzt szem el\u0151tt tartva a hrivnya hivatalos \u00e1rfolyam\u00e1t 2023 v\u00e9g\u00e9n 36,6\u201337,5 UAH\/doll\u00e1r szinten v\u00e1rjuk, szemben a kor\u00e1bbi 39 UAH\/doll\u00e1rral, \u00e9s m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9st j\u00f3solunk 41 UAH\/doll\u00e1rig 2024 v\u00e9g\u00e9re\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll a Soros Gy\u00f6rgyh\u00f6z k\u00f6thet\u0151 Dragon Capital el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(vb\/rbc.ua)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211; creatorid:bey5821&nbsp;&#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az Ukr\u00e1n Nemzeti Bank (NBU) 2023 v\u00e9g\u00e9n vagy a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9v elej\u00e9n felmondhatja a hrivnya doll\u00e1rhoz viszony\u00edtott r\u00f6gz\u00edtett \u00e1rfolyam\u00e1r\u00f3l, de ez csak enyhe le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9shez vezet \u2013 k\u00f6z\u00f6lte p\u00e9nteken az rbc.ua h\u00edrport\u00e1l a Dragon Capital befektet\u00e9si c\u00e9g el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9re hivatkozva.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":41541,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,1593,41,17,33],"tags":[642,124414,585,19435],"class_list":["post-41540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-surgos","category-ukrajna","tag-inflacio","tag-rogzitett-arfolyam","tag-ukran-nemzeti-bank-nbu","tag-valuta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=41540"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":41542,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/41540\/revisions\/41542"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/41541"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=41540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=41540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=41540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}