{"id":43870,"date":"2023-12-04T15:34:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-04T13:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=43870"},"modified":"2023-12-04T02:41:34","modified_gmt":"2023-12-04T00:41:34","slug":"kina-helyett-most-mar-india-hajtja-majd-az-azsiai-novekedest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=43870&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"K\u00edna helyett most m\u00e1r India hajtja majd az \u00e1zsiai n\u00f6veked\u00e9st"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A k\u00ednai gazdas\u00e1g lassul\u00e1s\u00e1val a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00e1rom \u00e9vben India v\u00e1lik a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s motorj\u00e1v\u00e1 az \u00e1zsiai csendes-\u00f3ce\u00e1ni t\u00e9rs\u00e9gben az S&amp;P Global legfrissebb jelent\u00e9se szerint.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 az elm\u00falt h\u00e9ten m\u00e1r felfel\u00e9 m\u00f3dos\u00edtotta az indiai n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokat, \u00e9s azzal sz\u00e1mol, hogy az orsz\u00e1g GDP-je a kor\u00e1bban jelzett hat sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k helyett 6,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal b\u0151v\u00fcl a 2024 m\u00e1rcius\u00e1val z\u00e1rul\u00f3 p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi \u00e9vben. Az S&amp;P szerint a v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l gyorsabb n\u00f6veked\u00e9s a belf\u00f6ldi fogyaszt\u00e1snak k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151, ami ellens\u00falyozta a magas \u00e9lelmiszer-infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t \u00e9s a gyenge exportaktivit\u00e1st.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bd6c04094d664dc2ae0228a2820d9180-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43872\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bd6c04094d664dc2ae0228a2820d9180-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bd6c04094d664dc2ae0228a2820d9180-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bd6c04094d664dc2ae0228a2820d9180-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/bd6c04094d664dc2ae0228a2820d9180.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A bels\u0151 fogyaszt\u00e1s hajtja a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A r\u00e9gi\u00f3 m\u00e1s felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 gazdas\u00e1gai, \u00edgy Indon\u00e9zia, Malajzia \u00e9s a F\u00fcl\u00f6p-szigetek is az er\u0151s hazai kereslet eredm\u00e9nyek\u00e9ppen fognak n\u00f6vekedni id\u00e9n \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151re a jelent\u00e9s szerint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az S&amp;P ugyan 2025-ben n\u00e9mi visszaes\u00e9st v\u00e1r az indiai gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9ben \u2013 a kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokat 6,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 6,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra rontotta \u2013, 2026-ban azonban ism\u00e9t er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9sre, a GDP 7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9re sz\u00e1m\u00edt.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"649\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/cf4276f625e24737ad5cbbce6978b284-1024x649.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43873\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/cf4276f625e24737ad5cbbce6978b284-1024x649.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/cf4276f625e24737ad5cbbce6978b284-300x190.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/cf4276f625e24737ad5cbbce6978b284-768x487.jpg 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/cf4276f625e24737ad5cbbce6978b284.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A JPMorgan valamivel visszafogottabb, az amerikai bank elemz\u0151i 5,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6veked\u00e9st v\u00e1rnak j\u00f6v\u0151re Indi\u00e1t\u00f3l, amely a Goldman Sach progn\u00f3zisa szerint 2075-re a vil\u00e1g m\u00e1sodik legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga lesz, megel\u0151zi nemcsak Jap\u00e1nt \u00e9s N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1got, hanem az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokat is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ehhez k\u00e9pest k\u00edna, a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g gazdas\u00e1g\u00e1nak eddigi motorja, a vil\u00e1g m\u00e1sodik legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga az id\u00e9n v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an csak 5,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151, ami 0,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal kisebb az S&amp;P \u00e1ltal kor\u00e1bban jelzettn\u00e9l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00edna 2024-es n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sait azonban jav\u00edtott\u00e1k, most 4,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot v\u00e1rnak a kor\u00e1bbi 4,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k helyett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>K\u00edn\u00e1ban is hat az \u00f6szt\u00f6nz\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eA re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9re vonatkoz\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00fcnk jav\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1hoz hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rult, hogy K\u00edna nemr\u00e9giben j\u00f3v\u00e1hagyta az ezermilli\u00e1rd j\u00fcan \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 \u00e1llamk\u00f6tv\u00e9ny-kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1st, \u00e9s enged\u00e9lyezte a helyi \u00f6nkorm\u00e1nyzatok sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra, hogy r\u00e9szben el\u0151rehozz\u00e1k a 2024-es k\u00f6tv\u00e9nykv\u00f3t\u00e1ikat\u201d \u2013 id\u00e9zte a CNBC a jelent\u00e9sben foglaltakat.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1c95eecb8fbd43369140e441506e5a55-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43871\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1c95eecb8fbd43369140e441506e5a55-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1c95eecb8fbd43369140e441506e5a55-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1c95eecb8fbd43369140e441506e5a55-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/1c95eecb8fbd43369140e441506e5a55.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ez a l\u00e9p\u00e9s a Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF) legfrissebb progn\u00f3zisa szerint is jav\u00edtja a k\u00ednai n\u00f6veked\u00e9s idei kil\u00e1t\u00e1sait, amelyet a szervezet 5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 5,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra jav\u00edtott.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az S&amp;P ugyanakkor figyelmeztetett, hogy az ingatlanszektorban tapasztalhat\u00f3 zavarok tov\u00e1bbra is vesz\u00e9lyt jelentenek a k\u00ednai gazdas\u00e1gra, ezzel a meg\u00e1llap\u00edt\u00e1ssal az IMF is egyet\u00e9rt.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/c01f03221ca14dd5a457707c2f82708e-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-43874\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/c01f03221ca14dd5a457707c2f82708e-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/c01f03221ca14dd5a457707c2f82708e-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/c01f03221ca14dd5a457707c2f82708e-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/c01f03221ca14dd5a457707c2f82708e.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;\u201eAz \u00faj ingatlanok ir\u00e1nti kereslet tov\u00e1bbra is gyenge, ami hat\u00e1ssal van a fejleszt\u0151k p\u00e9nzforgalm\u00e1ra \u00e9s a telekelad\u00e1sokra\u201d \u2013 mondta ezzel kapcsolatban Eunice Tan, az S&amp;P Global \u00e1zsiai csendes-\u00f3ce\u00e1ni r\u00e9gi\u00f3t vizsg\u00e1l\u00f3 hitelkutat\u00e1si vezet\u0151je. \u201eA korl\u00e1tozott likvidit\u00e1s k\u00f6zepette a nagym\u00e9rt\u00e9kben elad\u00f3sodott \u00f6nkorm\u00e1nyzati finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si eszk\u00f6z\u00f6k (LGFV-k) eset\u00e9ben a hitelez\u00e9si stressz fokoz\u00f3dhat, ami a k\u00ednai bankok t\u0151kehelyzet\u00e9t is rontja\u201d \u2013 tette hozz\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Optimizmusa ellen\u00e9re az S&amp;P 4,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l 4,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra v\u00e1gta vissza az \u00e1zsiai csendes-\u00f3ce\u00e1ni t\u00e9rs\u00e9g K\u00edna n\u00e9lk\u00fcli j\u00f6v\u0151 \u00e9vi n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sait az Izrael \u00e9s a Ham\u00e1sz k\u00f6z\u00f6tt d\u00fal\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00fa okozta energiasokk \u00e9s az amerikai gazdas\u00e1g lassul\u00e1s\u00e1nak kock\u00e1zata miatt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vg.hu\/nemzetkozi-gazdasag\/2023\/12\/kina-helyett-most-mar-india-hajtja-majd-az-azsiai-novekedest?utm_source=hirstart&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=hiraggregator\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(vg.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A k\u00ednai gazdas\u00e1g lassul\u00e1s\u00e1val a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00e1rom \u00e9vben India v\u00e1lik a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s motorj\u00e1v\u00e1 az \u00e1zsiai csendes-\u00f3ce\u00e1ni t\u00e9rs\u00e9gben az S&#038;P Global legfrissebb jelent\u00e9se szerint.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":43874,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,23,39],"tags":[355,201446],"class_list":["post-43870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-fotok","category-vilag","tag-gazdasagi-fejlodes","tag-india-gazdasaga"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=43870"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43870\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":43875,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43870\/revisions\/43875"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/43874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=43870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=43870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=43870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}