{"id":5083,"date":"2020-06-27T15:09:00","date_gmt":"2020-06-27T12:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=5083"},"modified":"2020-06-26T21:12:41","modified_gmt":"2020-06-26T18:12:41","slug":"fitch-fellendules-kezdodhet-az-ev-masodik-feleben-a-kozep-es-kelet-europai-gazdasagokban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=5083&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Fitch: Fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s kezd\u0151dhet az \u00e9v m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9ben a k\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s kelet-eur\u00f3pai gazdas\u00e1gokban"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A t\u00e1gabb \u00e9rtelemben vett k\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s kelet-eur\u00f3pai t\u00e9rs\u00e9g gazdas\u00e1gait is komolyan megterheli id\u00e9n a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny, a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban azonban az \u00e9v m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9t\u0151l m\u00e1r fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s, j\u00f6v\u0151re lend\u00fcletes n\u00f6veked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch Ratings p\u00e9nteken Londonban ismertetett \u00e1tfog\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"864\" height=\"486\" src=\"http:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/fitch-ratings2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5085\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/fitch-ratings2.jpg 864w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/fitch-ratings2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/06\/fitch-ratings2-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 864px) 100vw, 864px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A nemzetk\u00f6zi hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: modellsz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sai arra vallanak, hogy az \u00e1ltala vizsg\u00e1lt 22 gazdas\u00e1gban \u2013 k\u00f6zt\u00fck az egykori szovjet t\u00e9rs\u00e9g t\u00f6bb orsz\u00e1g\u00e1ban \u2013 a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k (GDP) idei eg\u00e9sz \u00e9ves visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9nek medi\u00e1n\u00fcteme 4,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lesz, de 2021 eg\u00e9sz\u00e9ben \u2013 ugyancsak medi\u00e1n\u00e9rt\u00e9ken sz\u00e1molva \u2013 az orsz\u00e1gcsoport gazdas\u00e1gai 5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u00f6vekedhetnek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch Ratings a magyar gazdas\u00e1gban 2020-ra 5,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos GDP-cs\u00f6kken\u00e9st, 2021-re 5,4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos n\u00f6veked\u00e9st val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: a Magyarorsz\u00e1gra \u00e1ltala \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben tartott stabil kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00fa \u201eBBB\u201d \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-oszt\u00e1lyzat t\u00e9nyez\u0151i k\u00f6z\u00f6tt vannak az er\u0151teljes szerkezeti jelz\u0151sz\u00e1mok, \u00e9s az is, hogy Magyarorsz\u00e1g makrogazdas\u00e1gi teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye stabilabb \u00e9s er\u0151sebb a t\u00e9rs\u00e9gi t\u00e1rsgazdas\u00e1gok\u00e9n\u00e1l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A besorol\u00e1s figyelembe veszi ugyanakkor a magas \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-r\u00e1t\u00e1t, a szakpolitika pro-ciklikus jelleg\u00e9t \u00e9s a kisz\u00e1m\u00edthat\u00f3s\u00e1gi kock\u00e1zatokat is \u2013 hangs\u00falyozza p\u00e9nteki elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben a Fitch Ratings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 szerint a magyar gazdas\u00e1g val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg \u00e1prilisban jutott t\u00fal a m\u00e9lyponton, \u00e9s m\u00e1r kezd\u0151dik a kil\u00e1bal\u00e1s: a j\u00e1rm\u0171gy\u00e1rt\u00e1s emelkedik \u00e9s a bizalmi jelz\u0151sz\u00e1mok is felfel\u00e9 indultak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch Ratings k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: modellsz\u00e1m\u00edt\u00e1sai szerint a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9khez m\u00e9rt magyar \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1si hi\u00e1ny \u2013 mindenekel\u0151tt a GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k 12 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1nak megfelel\u0151 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si t\u00e1mogat\u00e1si csomag hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra \u2013 az id\u00e9n 4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelkedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 azonban 2021-ben 2,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kken\u0151 deficittel sz\u00e1mol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa az, hogy a GDP-ar\u00e1nyos magyar \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-r\u00e1ta az id\u00e9n 72,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelkedik a tavalyi 65,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kr\u00f3l, j\u00f6v\u0151re azonban ism\u00e9t 70 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k al\u00e1, 68,5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Csaknem azonos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st \u00e1ll\u00edtott \u00f6ssze a minap a magyar gazdas\u00e1g v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 n\u00f6veked\u00e9si p\u00e1ly\u00e1j\u00e1r\u00f3l egy m\u00e1sik glob\u00e1lis hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151, a Moody&#8217;s Investors Service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody&#8217;s e h\u00e9t elej\u00e9n Londonban ismertetett \u00e9ves orsz\u00e1gjelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint a magyar GDP 2020 eg\u00e9sz\u00e9ben 4,8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal cs\u00f6kken, de 2021-ben 4 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u00f6vekszik re\u00e1l\u00e9rt\u00e9ken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody&#8217;s szerint az \u00e1ltala \u201eBaa3\u201d befektet\u00e9si aj\u00e1nl\u00e1s\u00fa min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9ssel ell\u00e1tott magyar szuver\u00e9n ad\u00f3sprofilt a sok l\u00e1bon \u00e1ll\u00f3, az eur\u00f3pai besz\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00f3i h\u00e1l\u00f3zatokba szorosan integr\u00e1lt magyar gazdas\u00e1g t\u00e1masztja al\u00e1, valamint a magyar k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si politika, amely az elm\u00falt \u00e9vekben folyamatosan a maastrichti 3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos k\u00fcsz\u00f6b alatt tartotta a GDP-ar\u00e1nyos \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1si hi\u00e1nyt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 azt val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edti, hogy a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny okozta idei GDP-visszaes\u00e9s k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben a magyar \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-r\u00e1ta 2020-ban a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k 73,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1ra emelkedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A c\u00e9g el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint ugyanakkor az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1llom\u00e1ny emelked\u00e9se \u00e1tmeneti lesz, \u00e9s a GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9khez m\u00e9rt ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gr\u00e1ta m\u00e1r 2021-ben 71,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kken.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Moody&#8217;s Investors Service jelenlegi \u201eBaa3\u201d magyar \u00e1llamd\u00f3s-besorol\u00e1sa a m\u00e1sik k\u00e9t glob\u00e1lis hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151, a Fitch Ratings \u00e9s a Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s m\u00f3dszertan\u00e1ban \u201eBBB m\u00ednusz\u201d-nak felel meg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch \u00e9s az S&amp;P azonban tavaly egyar\u00e1nt \u201eBBB\u201d-re jav\u00edtotta a hossz\u00fa futam\u00fa magyar ad\u00f3soszt\u00e1lyzatot, \u00edgy a Moody&#8217;s a m\u00e1sik k\u00e9t hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151n\u00e9l egy fokozattal alacsonyabb besorol\u00e1st tart \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben Magyarorsz\u00e1gra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(MTI)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A t\u00e1gabb \u00e9rtelemben vett k\u00f6z\u00e9p- \u00e9s kelet-eur\u00f3pai t\u00e9rs\u00e9g gazdas\u00e1gait is komolyan megterheli id\u00e9n a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny, a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban azonban az \u00e9v m\u00e1sodik fel\u00e9t\u0151l m\u00e1r fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s, j\u00f6v\u0151re lend\u00fcletes n\u00f6veked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch Ratings p\u00e9nteken Londonban ismertetett \u00e1tfog\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":5084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1593,41,49,39],"tags":[3795,3536,746],"class_list":["post-5083","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-gazdasagi-elorejelzes","tag-koronavirus"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5083\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}