{"id":52116,"date":"2024-08-13T19:44:00","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T16:44:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=52116"},"modified":"2024-08-12T22:47:27","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T19:47:27","slug":"meg-a-vartnal-is-tragikusabb-lehet-a-nemet-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=52116&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"M\u00e9g a v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l is tragikusabb lehet a n\u00e9met GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Egyre gy\u00e1szosabb k\u00e9pet fest Eur\u00f3pa legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga. A n\u00e9met GDP \u2013 amit\u0151l er\u0151sen f\u00fcgg a magyar gazdas\u00e1g is \u2013 alig n\u00f6vekszik az id\u00e9n, s j\u00f6v\u0151re is csak nagyon szer\u00e9ny emelked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok szerint a gazdas\u00e1g m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9vi meglep\u0151 zsugorod\u00e1s\u00e1t k\u00f6vet\u0151en, id\u00e9n alig n\u0151 a n\u00e9met GDP. A brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k 2024-ben mind\u00f6ssze 0,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal emelkedik, szemben a kor\u00e1bbi 0,2 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9ssel \u2013 der\u00fcl ki a Bloomberg havi felm\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9nek medi\u00e1n-el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9b\u0151l. Az elemz\u0151k a 2025-re vonatkoz\u00f3 kil\u00e1t\u00e1saikat is ugyanennyivel, 1,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kkentett\u00e9k.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A kedvez\u0151tlen \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u00e9s azt k\u00f6vet\u0151en sz\u00fcletett, hogy az orsz\u00e1g ipari probl\u00e9m\u00e1i tov\u00e1bbra is visszafogj\u00e1k a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st, \u00e9s Eur\u00f3pa legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga v\u00e1ratlanul zsugorodott a j\u00faniusig tart\u00f3 h\u00e1rom h\u00f3napban. A m\u00falt h\u00e9ten k\u00f6zz\u00e9tett adatok szerint az ipari rendel\u00e9s\u00e1llom\u00e1ny \u00e9s az ipari termel\u00e9s n\u00f6vekedett az id\u0151szak v\u00e9g\u00e9n, ez azonban az elemz\u0151i v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok szerint nem el\u00e9g ahhoz, hogy behozza az eddigi lemarad\u00e1st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c1br\u00e1nkon a s\u00e1rga s\u00e1v a kor\u00e1bbi, a k\u00e9k az augusztus 2. \u00e9s 8. k\u00f6z\u00f6tt k\u00e9sz\u00edtett felm\u00e9r\u00e9s eredm\u00e9nyeit mutatja.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ugyanakkor az export j\u00faniusban m\u00e9g mindig nem volt k\u00e9pes n\u00f6vekedni, a kor\u00e1bbi gazdas\u00e1gi expanzi\u00f3 f\u0151 hajt\u00f3erej\u00e9vel s\u00falyos probl\u00e9m\u00e1k vannak. A Bloomberg Economics szerint az ipari tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9gben mutatkoz\u00f3 visszaes\u00e9s nagyj\u00e1b\u00f3l fele struktur\u00e1lis probl\u00e9m\u00e1kra vezethet\u0151 vissza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az elemz\u0151k tov\u00e1bbra is azt j\u00f3solj\u00e1k, hogy a k\u00e9sleked\u0151 fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s az\u00e9rt j\u00f6v\u0151re beindul, \u00e9s 2026-ig, b\u00e1r szer\u00e9ny, de folyamatos b\u0151v\u00fcl\u00e9st eredm\u00e9nyez. Ez tal\u00e1n megnyugtat\u00f3 lehet Olaf Scholz kancell\u00e1r sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra, aki hivatalba l\u00e9p\u00e9se \u00f3ta a napt\u00e1ri negyed\u00e9vek kevesebb mint fel\u00e9ben tapasztalt n\u00f6veked\u00e9st, \u00e9s j\u00f6v\u0151re v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sok v\u00e1rnak r\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Bloomberg 0,1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se \u00f6sszhangban van az Eur\u00f3pai Bizotts\u00e1g 2024-re vonatkoz\u00f3 progn\u00f3zis\u00e1val. A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap, a Bundesbank \u00e9s az OECD valamivel gyorsabb n\u00f6veked\u00e9st l\u00e1t. Legut\u00f3bbi havi jelent\u00e9s\u00e9ben a n\u00e9met jegybank m\u00e9g arra figyelmeztetett, hogy a gyenge kereslet \u00e1tk\u00e1t m\u00e9g nem siker\u00fclt teljesen lek\u00fczdeni, tov\u00e1bb\u00e1: az ipari tev\u00e9kenys\u00e9g val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg csak lassan javul.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(vg.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Egyre gy\u00e1szosabb k\u00e9pet fest Eur\u00f3pa legnagyobb gazdas\u00e1ga. A n\u00e9met GDP \u2013 amit\u0151l er\u0151sen f\u00fcgg a magyar gazdas\u00e1g is \u2013 alig n\u00f6vekszik az id\u00e9n, s j\u00f6v\u0151re is csak nagyon szer\u00e9ny emelked\u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":52118,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,11,39],"tags":[333394,4960],"class_list":["post-52116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-vilag","tag-nemet-gdp","tag-visszaeses"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52116"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52119,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52116\/revisions\/52119"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/52118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}