{"id":52950,"date":"2024-09-13T16:41:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-13T13:41:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=52950"},"modified":"2024-09-13T00:06:10","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T21:06:10","slug":"tovabb-gyengulhet-az-euro-a-dollarral-szemben","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=52950&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Tov\u00e1bb gyeng\u00fclhet az eur\u00f3 a doll\u00e1rral szemben"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A piac sz\u00e9les k\u00f6rben arra sz\u00e1m\u00edt, hogy az Eur\u00f3pai K\u00f6zponti Bank (EKB) a szeptemberi \u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9n tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kken\u00e9s mellett fog d\u00f6nteni. Ez a l\u00e9p\u00e9s a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok szerint az eur\u00f3 tov\u00e1bbi gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9hez vezethet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Adams, a Morgan Stanley vezet\u0151 devizapiaci elemz\u0151je szerint az int\u00e9zked\u00e9s k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyek\u00e9nt az eur\u00f3 az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re ak\u00e1r 1,02-re is cs\u00f6kkenhet az amerikai doll\u00e1rral szemben, ami mintegy 7%-os le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151d\u00e9st jelentene. \u00dagy v\u00e9li tov\u00e1bb\u00e1, hogy a doll\u00e1r er\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s\u00e9hez az amerikai v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sok is hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rulnak majd. Ezzel p\u00e1rhuzamosan a politikai bizonytalans\u00e1gok Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban, k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen Franciaorsz\u00e1gban \u00e9s N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1gban, tov\u00e1bbi nyom\u00e1st gyakorolhatnak az eur\u00f3ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A napokban egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt kider\u00fclt, hogy t\u00f6bb orsz\u00e1g is id\u0151t k\u00e9rt az Eur\u00f3pai Bizotts\u00e1gt\u00f3l, hogy beny\u00fajtsa ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g- \u00e9s hi\u00e1nycs\u00f6kkent\u00e9si terveiket. Az \u00e1llamok k\u00f6z\u00f6tt van Magyarorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Franciaorsz\u00e1g is, amely id\u00e9n v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an a GDP legal\u00e1bb 5,6%-\u00e1t kivet\u0151 hi\u00e1nnyal szembes\u00fclhet, s a helyzetet tov\u00e1bb bonyol\u00edtja, hogy k\u00e9t h\u00f3nappal a v\u00e1laszt\u00e1sok ut\u00e1n m\u00e9g mindig nincs stabil korm\u00e1ny. De N\u00e9metorsz\u00e1g gazdas\u00e1gi teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nye is aggaszt\u00f3, a m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9vben a GPD ugyanis visszaesett, ami recesszi\u00f3s f\u00e9lelmeket keltett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Bloomberg \u00e1ltal megk\u00e9rdezett devizapiaci elemz\u0151k k\u00f6z\u00fcl sokan osztj\u00e1k Adams v\u00e9lem\u00e9ny\u00e9t, m\u00edg m\u00e1sok arra sz\u00e1m\u00edtanak, hogy az eur\u00f3 er\u0151s\u00f6dhet az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re, s az \u00e1rfolyam ak\u00e1r 1,11 doll\u00e1r is lehet. Jelenleg az EUR\/USD \u00e1rfolyam egy\u00e9bk\u00e9nt 1,11038 k\u00f6r\u00fcl mozog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mi t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezetben?<\/strong>
A kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sek el\u0151nyei k\u00f6z\u00e9 tartozhat, hogy cs\u00f6kkenthetik a finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si k\u00f6lts\u00e9geket, ez\u00e1ltal \u00f6szt\u00f6n\u00f6zhetik a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokat. Ugyanakkor ezzel egyidej\u0171leg az import\u00e1lt infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9nek kock\u00e1zata is fenn\u00e1ll. Mindemellett az eur\u00f3z\u00f3na infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1sa tov\u00e1bbra is jelent\u0151s, s a sz\u00e1mok tov\u00e1bbi aggodalomra adhatnak okot, mivel t\u00fall\u00e9phetj\u00fck az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s c\u00e9lkit\u0171z\u00e9seket. A Reuters augusztus 30. \u00e9s szeptember 5. k\u00f6z\u00f6tt v\u00e9gzett felm\u00e9r\u00e9se szerint az eur\u00f3\u00f6vezetben 30%-os val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9ggel v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 recesszi\u00f3 a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 k\u00e9t \u00e9vben, ami tov\u00e1bb er\u0151s\u00edtheti a monet\u00e1ris politika enyh\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9nek sz\u00fcks\u00e9gess\u00e9g\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forr\u00e1s<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A piac sz\u00e9les k\u00f6rben arra sz\u00e1m\u00edt, hogy az Eur\u00f3pai K\u00f6zponti Bank (EKB) a szeptemberi \u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9n tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kken\u00e9s mellett fog d\u00f6nteni. Ez a l\u00e9p\u00e9s a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sok szerint az eur\u00f3 tov\u00e1bbi gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9hez vezethet.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":52952,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,41,49,39],"tags":[356271,1770],"class_list":["post-52950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-euro-gyengulese","tag-valuta-arfolyam"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52950"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52950\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52953,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52950\/revisions\/52953"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/52952"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}