{"id":53918,"date":"2024-10-20T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-20T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=53918"},"modified":"2024-10-20T12:41:15","modified_gmt":"2024-10-20T09:41:15","slug":"az-imf-frissitett-elorejelzese-szerint-a-haboru-2025-vegere-fejezodik-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=53918&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az IMF friss\u00edtett el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa 2025 v\u00e9g\u00e9re fejez\u0151dik be"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF) szak\u00e9rt\u0151i meg\u00faj\u00edtott\u00e1k az Oroszorsz\u00e1g Ukrajna elleni h\u00e1bor\u00faj\u00e1nak id\u0151tartam\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st, az intenz\u00edv harcok befejez\u00e9s\u00e9nek hat\u00e1ridej\u00e9t egy \u00e9vvel elhalasztott\u00e1k \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be vas\u00e1rnap az rbc.ua<\/a> h\u00edrport\u00e1l az IMF-fel k\u00f6t\u00f6tt memorandumra hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A jelent\u00e9s szerint a dokumentumot meg\u00e1llap\u00edtotta: \u201eA friss\u00edtett alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa 2025 utols\u00f3 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben \u00e9r v\u00e9get, aminek er\u0151s g\u00e1tl\u00f3 hat\u00e1sa lesz, de Ukrajna k\u00e9pes lesz fenntartani a m\u00e9rs\u00e9kelt (gazdas\u00e1gi) n\u00f6veked\u00e9st.\u201d J\u00faniusban az IMF az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa v\u00e9g\u00e9t 2024 v\u00e9g\u00e9re prognosztiz\u00e1lta, a h\u00e1bor\u00fa 2025 v\u00e9gi befejez\u0151d\u00e9se pedig negat\u00edv el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st tartalmazott az alapt\u00f3l.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban azt felt\u00e9telezi, hogy a h\u00e1bor\u00fa hat\u00e1sa a biztons\u00e1gi helyzet miatt m\u00e1r cs\u00f6kkent gazdas\u00e1gi aktivit\u00e1s\u00fa ter\u00fcletekre \u00f6sszpontosul. M\u00edg a fellend\u00fcl\u00e9s hat\u00e1s\u00e1ra a n\u00f6veked\u00e9s tov\u00e1bbra is pozit\u00edv marad, egy hosszabb h\u00e1bor\u00fa negat\u00edv hat\u00e1st vet\u00edt el\u0151re a gazdas\u00e1gi teljes\u00edtm\u00e9nyre a tart\u00f3sabb bizonytalans\u00e1g, a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny, a v\u00e9delemhez \u00e9s jav\u00edt\u00e1shoz kapcsol\u00f3d\u00f3 importnyom\u00e1s, valamint a n\u00e9pess\u00e9gdinamika miatt \u2013 \u00e1ll a memorandumban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t 2024-ben 3%-os szinten prognosztiz\u00e1lj\u00e1k. A n\u00f6veked\u00e9s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dik a harmadik negyed\u00e9vben, a korai betakar\u00edt\u00e1s \u00e9s az er\u0151teljes export ellens\u00falyozza az energiahi\u00e1ny negat\u00edv hat\u00e1s\u00e1t. A negyedik negyed\u00e9vben tov\u00e1bb lassul a gazdas\u00e1g a f\u0171t\u00e9si szezonban megn\u00f6vekedett kereslet miatt n\u00f6vekv\u0151 energiahi\u00e1ny miatt \u2013 j\u00f3solja az IMF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az IMF 3-4 GW-ra becs\u00fcli a t\u00e9li energiahi\u00e1nyt, ami \u201eegyezik a t\u00f6bbi \u00e9rdekelt f\u00e9l becsl\u00e9s\u00e9vel\u201d, mik\u00f6zben a rak\u00e9tat\u00e1mad\u00e1sok \u00e9s a szezon\u00e1lis t\u00e9nyez\u0151k miatti negat\u00edv kock\u00e1zatok \u00e9rv\u00e9nyes\u00fclnek \u2013 \u00e1ll a memorandumban. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 decemberre tov\u00e1bbra is 9%-ra emelkedik, ami a termel\u0151i \u00e1rak (f\u0151leg energiavez\u00e9relt) \u00e9s a munkaer\u0151k\u00f6lts\u00e9gek meredek emelked\u00e9s\u00e9t t\u00fckr\u00f6zi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A re\u00e1l GDP fellend\u00fcl\u00e9se lassabb lesz (a 2,5-3,5%, 2-3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal alacsonyabb a kor\u00e1bbi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sn\u00e9l) a hosszabb h\u00e1bor\u00fa miatt. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re 7,5%-ra cs\u00f6kken, ahogy a kiad\u00e1si nyom\u00e1s enyh\u00fcl. A foly\u00f3 fizet\u00e9si m\u00e9rleg hi\u00e1nya v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an 27,1 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra (a GDP 14,3%-\u00e1ra) n\u0151het a tart\u00f3s importig\u00e9nyek, a munkaer\u0151hi\u00e1ny exporttermel\u00e9sre gyakorolt hat\u00e1sa \u00e9s a visszafogott t\u00e1mogat\u00e1sok miatt, amelyet a stabil haj\u00f3z\u00e1s, a mag\u00e1ntranszferek, valamint ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g \u00e1tstruktur\u00e1l\u00e1sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az IMF el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa ut\u00e1ni kil\u00e1bal\u00e1st egy hosszabb h\u00e1bor\u00fa sebei lass\u00edtj\u00e1k, de a k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa kil\u00e1t\u00e1sok er\u0151s reformterven \u00e9s az EU-csatlakoz\u00e1s fel\u00e9 vezet\u0151 \u00faton, valamint a r\u00e9szleges \u00fajj\u00e1\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9sen alapulnak. A h\u00e1bor\u00fa ut\u00e1ni kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s visszafogottabb fellend\u00fcl\u00e9se a friss\u00edtett alap\u00e1llapotban a menek\u00fcltek lassabb visszat\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9t t\u00fckr\u00f6zi, ami nagyobb hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa n\u00e9pess\u00e9gfogy\u00e1shoz vezet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(vb\/rbc.ua)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<!– creatorid:bey5821 –><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF) szak\u00e9rt\u0151i meg\u00faj\u00edtott\u00e1k az Oroszorsz\u00e1g Ukrajna elleni h\u00e1bor\u00faj\u00e1nak id\u0151tartam\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st, az intenz\u00edv harcok befejez\u00e9s\u00e9nek hat\u00e1ridej\u00e9t egy \u00e9vvel elhalasztott\u00e1k.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":53919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,1593,41,33854,11,17,39],"tags":[428,33922,160897,33650],"class_list":["post-53918","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-kiemelt-tema","category-surgos","category-vilag","tag-gdp","tag-haboru","tag-haboru-vege","tag-nemzetkozi-valutaalap-imf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53918","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53918"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53918\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53921,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53918\/revisions\/53921"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/53919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53918"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53918"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53918"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}