{"id":53988,"date":"2024-10-23T16:17:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-23T13:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=53988"},"modified":"2024-10-23T12:15:15","modified_gmt":"2024-10-23T09:15:15","slug":"az-imf-elorejelzese-szerint-ukrajna-allamadossaga-2025-ben-eloszor-haladja-meg-a-gdp-100-szazalekat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=53988&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az IMF el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint Ukrajna \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1ga 2025-ben el\u0151sz\u00f6r haladja meg a GDP 100 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ukrajna \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1ga 2025-ben el\u0151sz\u00f6r haladja meg a brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k 100 %-\u00e1t, id\u00e9n ennek a mutat\u00f3nak csak a 3-5 %-a lesz az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g \u00f6sszege, de a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g nem cs\u00f6kken a GDP 100 %-a al\u00e1 \u2013sz\u00e1molt be kedden az rbc.ua h\u00edrport\u00e1l az IMF-fel k\u00f6t\u00f6tt memorandum sz\u00f6veg\u00e9re hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"675\" height=\"379\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/ukran-gazdasag-gdp.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27141\" style=\"width:885px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/ukran-gazdasag-gdp.png 675w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/ukran-gazdasag-gdp-300x168.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 675px) 100vw, 675px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint Ukrajna \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1ga id\u00e9n a GDP 95,6 %-a, j\u00f6v\u0151re pedig 106,6 %-a lesz. Ugyanakkor 2026-ban m\u00e9g egy sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal n\u0151 az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g 2025-h\u00f6z k\u00e9pest. B\u00e1r 2027-ben 5 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal kellene cs\u00f6kkennie 102,6 %-ra. Negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv eset\u00e9n azonban az \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g id\u00e9n a GDP 97 %-a lesz. A k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben n\u00f6vekedni fog. Az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gteher 2025-ben a GDP 117,5 %-\u00e1t, 2026-ban 132,1 %-\u00e1t, 2027-ben pedig m\u00e1r az \u00e1llam brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k\u00e9nek 134,3 %-\u00e1t teszi ki.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gterheket n\u00f6vel\u0151 f\u0151bb kock\u00e1zatok k\u00f6z\u00f6tt az IMF a h\u00e1bor\u00fa id\u0151tartam\u00e1t \u00e9s intenzit\u00e1s\u00e1t emeli ki, bele\u00e9rtve az energiainfrastrukt\u00fara elleni t\u00e1mad\u00e1sokat, amelyek Ukrajna gazdas\u00e1gi potenci\u00e1lj\u00e1nak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9vel j\u00e1rnak. Emellett az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1got negat\u00edvan befoly\u00e1sol\u00f3 t\u00e9nyez\u0151k k\u00f6z\u00e9 tartozik a nemzetk\u00f6zi partnerek p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s\u00e1ra val\u00f3 hossz\u00fa v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201eMindk\u00e9t forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv (alap\u00e1llapot \u00e9s negat\u00edv \u2013 <em>a szerk<\/em>.) azon alapul, hogy az adom\u00e1nyoz\u00f3k teljes\u00edtik p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geiket (a G7-kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9s keret\u00e9ben is). A k\u00e9sedelmek vagy a forr\u00e1shi\u00e1ny p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a szoci\u00e1lis kiad\u00e1sok cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9hez vezethet. Vagy a belf\u00f6ldi ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g, amely jelent\u0151s gazdas\u00e1gi \u00e9s t\u00e1rsadalmi megr\u00e1zk\u00f3dtat\u00e1sokkal j\u00e1r\u201d \u2013 \u00e1ll a dokumentumban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az IMF megjegyezte, hogy Ukrajna ez \u00e9v augusztus\u00e1ban sikeresen befejezte az \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g nagyar\u00e1ny\u00fa \u00e1tstruktur\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1t, mintegy 20,5 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r \u00e9rt\u00e9kben (vagyis k\u00f6r\u00fclbel\u00fcl 24 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r t\u0151k\u00e9s\u00edtett kamattal egy\u00fctt). Ez lehet\u0151v\u00e9 tette Ukrajna \u00e1llam- \u00e9s garant\u00e1lt ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1nak 9 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ros cs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s\u00e9t. A pozit\u00edv h\u00edrek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt megeml\u00edtette a G7 biztos\u00edt\u00e9kait is az 50 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ros t\u00f6bb\u00e9ves t\u00e1mogat\u00e1sr\u00f3l Ukrajn\u00e1nak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az IMF hangs\u00falyozta, hogy a politikai kiigaz\u00edt\u00e1sokat \u00e9s a m\u00e9lyrehat\u00f3bb struktur\u00e1lis reformokat m\u00e9g \u00e9vekig folytatni kell. B\u00e1r hozz\u00e1tette, hogy egyes reformok hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von hat\u00e1ssal lehetnek a t\u00e1rsadalmi fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gekre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\">(<strong>vb<\/strong>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ua\/rus\/news\/prognoz-mvf-2025-rotsi-derzhborg-ukrayini-1729631132.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rbc.ua<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211; creatorid:bey5821&nbsp;&#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ukrajna \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1ga 2025-ben el\u0151sz\u00f6r haladja meg a brutt\u00f3 hazai term\u00e9k 100 %-\u00e1t, id\u00e9n ennek a mutat\u00f3nak csak a 3-5 %-a lesz az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g \u00f6sszege, de a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g nem cs\u00f6kken a GDP 100 %-a al\u00e1 \u2013sz\u00e1molt be kedden az rbc.ua h\u00edrport\u00e1l az IMF-fel k\u00f6t\u00f6tt memorandum sz\u00f6veg\u00e9re hivatkozva. Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":27141,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,49,11,33],"tags":[429,1756,428,33650,120],"class_list":["post-53988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-kiemelt-tema","category-ukrajna","tag-allamadossag","tag-elorejelzes","tag-gdp","tag-nemzetkozi-valutaalap-imf","tag-ukrajna-hu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=53988"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53988\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53989,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53988\/revisions\/53989"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=53988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=53988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=53988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}