{"id":54864,"date":"2024-11-22T14:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-22T12:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=54864"},"modified":"2024-11-22T11:25:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-22T09:25:40","slug":"sulyosbodik-az-orosz-gazdasag-helyzete","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=54864&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"S\u00falyosbodik az orosz gazdas\u00e1g helyzete"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Az orosz gazdas\u00e1g infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1s alatt \u00e1ll, ami \u00fajabb kamatemel\u00e9st vet\u00edt el\u0151re. Vezet\u0151 k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok szerint az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 meghaladhatja a k\u00f6zponti bank idei \u00e9vre vonatkoz\u00f3 becsl\u00e9s\u00e9t, ami n\u00f6veli egy \u00fajabb agressz\u00edv ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatemel\u00e9s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g\u00e9t a j\u00f6v\u0151 h\u00f3napban.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A legfrissebb statisztikai adatok szerint a fogyaszt\u00f3i \u00e1rak a legut\u00f3bbi h\u00e9ten 0,37%-kal emelkedtek, ami az \u00e9v eleje \u00f3ta m\u00e9rt f\u0151sz\u00e1mot 7,4%-ra emelte. Ez az \u00e9rt\u00e9k m\u00e1r k\u00f6zel\u00edt a k\u00f6zponti bank eg\u00e9sz \u00e9vre vonatkoz\u00f3 8,0-8,5%-os infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s becsl\u00e9s\u00e9hez.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/oroszorszag-359360-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54865\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/oroszorszag-359360-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/oroszorszag-359360-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/oroszorszag-359360-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/oroszorszag-359360.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Denis Popov, a PSB Bank munkat\u00e1rsa szerint \u201ere\u00e1lis a vesz\u00e9lye annak, hogy az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 meghaladja a k\u00f6zponti bank okt\u00f3beri el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9t, ami arra k\u00e9szteti a szab\u00e1lyoz\u00f3 hat\u00f3s\u00e1got, hogy decemberben ism\u00e9t agressz\u00edvan emelje az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatl\u00e1bat, ez\u00fattal 23%-ra\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zponti bank okt\u00f3berben 21%-ra emelte az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatl\u00e1bat, azzal indokolva a l\u00e9p\u00e9st, hogy az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 lek\u00fczd\u00e9s\u00e9hez szigor\u00fa monet\u00e1ris politik\u00e1ra van sz\u00fcks\u00e9g. Ez a d\u00f6nt\u00e9s azonban kritik\u00e1k eg\u00e9sz sor\u00e1t v\u00e1ltotta ki az \u00fczleti vezet\u0151k r\u00e9sz\u00e9r\u0151l, akik szerint ez megfojtja a beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sokat \u00e9s a hitelez\u00e9st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az eg\u00e9sz \u00e9vre vonatkoz\u00f3 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s becsl\u00e9s okt\u00f3beri felfel\u00e9 t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lata m\u00e1r a harmadik volt, amelyet a k\u00f6zponti bank id\u00e9n nyilv\u00e1nosan ismertetett. Egyes kritikusok szerint a monet\u00e1ris int\u00e9zked\u00e9sek alig vagy egy\u00e1ltal\u00e1n nem hatottak az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3ra, mik\u00f6zben visszafogt\u00e1k a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st \u00e9s a Stagfl\u00e1ci\u00f3hoz vezettek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dmitrij Polevoj, az Astra Asset Manager munkat\u00e1rsa \u00fagy v\u00e9li, ha a jegybank kamatd\u00f6nt\u0151 \u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9re holnap ker\u00fclne sor, biztos lenne a 23%-ra t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 emel\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A jelenlegi makrogazdas\u00e1gi inputokat figyelembe v\u00e9ve minden rendk\u00edv\u00fcl kedvez\u0151tlennek t\u0171nik a k\u00f6zponti bank sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra \u2013 mondta Polevoj, aki az eg\u00e9sz \u00e9ves infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 9% feletti \u00e9rt\u00e9ket j\u00f3sol.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t els\u0151sorban az alapvet\u0151 \u00e9lelmiszerek \u00e1remelked\u00e9se t\u00e1pl\u00e1lja. A burgonya, amely sok orosz sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra alapvet\u0151 \u00e9lelmiszer, tavaly december \u00f3ta 74%-kal dr\u00e1gult. Emellett a vaj, a napraforg\u00f3olaj, a tejterm\u00e9kek \u00e9s az import\u00e1lt gy\u00fcm\u00f6lcs\u00f6k \u00e1ra is jelent\u0151sen emelkedett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6zponti bank jelent\u00e9seiben a term\u00e9st k\u00e1ros\u00edt\u00f3 rossz id\u0151j\u00e1r\u00e1st, a rossz logisztik\u00e1t, a rubel gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9s a megn\u00f6vekedett k\u00f6lts\u00e9geket, p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a nyersanyagok \u00e9s a munkaer\u0151 k\u00f6lts\u00e9geit okolta a magas infl\u00e1ci\u00f3\u00e9rt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A korm\u00e1ny igyekszik n\u00f6velni n\u00e9h\u00e1ny kulcsfontoss\u00e1g\u00fa \u00e9lelmiszeripari term\u00e9k importj\u00e1t, cs\u00f6kkenteni az exportkorl\u00e1tokat, korl\u00e1tozni vagy betiltani egyes exportterm\u00e9keket, \u00e9s jav\u00edtani a logisztik\u00e1t az \u00e1remelked\u00e9s visszafog\u00e1sa \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben. Ezen \u00f6sszehangolt er\u0151fesz\u00edt\u00e9sek ellen\u00e9re az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 folyamatosan emelkedik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Renaissance Capital elemz\u0151i szerint \u201ea jelenlegi n\u00f6veked\u00e9si p\u00e1lya az orosz jegybank el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se felett alakul\u201d. Hozz\u00e1tett\u00e9k, hogy ha az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 december k\u00f6zep\u00e9re 9% f\u00f6l\u00e9 emelkedik, a szab\u00e1lyoz\u00f3 hat\u00f3s\u00e1g v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an a kamatl\u00e1b 23%-ra t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 emel\u00e9s\u00e9vel fog reag\u00e1lni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.portfolio.hu\/gazdasag\/20241121\/sulyosbodik-az-orosz-gazdasag-helyzete-724770\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(portfolio.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az orosz gazdas\u00e1g infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1s alatt \u00e1ll, ami \u00fajabb kamatemel\u00e9st vet\u00edt el\u0151re. Vezet\u0151 k\u00f6zgazd\u00e1szok szerint az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 meghaladhatja a k\u00f6zponti bank idei \u00e9vre vonatkoz\u00f3 becsl\u00e9s\u00e9t, ami n\u00f6veli egy \u00fajabb agressz\u00edv ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatemel\u00e9s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g\u00e9t a j\u00f6v\u0151 h\u00f3napban.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":54865,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,33854,49,39],"tags":[33104,457139,247],"class_list":["post-54864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-orosz-gazdasag","tag-sulyos-helyzet","tag-szankciok"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54864","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=54864"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54864\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54866,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54864\/revisions\/54866"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/54865"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=54864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=54864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=54864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}