{"id":55785,"date":"2024-12-23T20:42:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-23T18:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=55785"},"modified":"2024-12-23T01:47:46","modified_gmt":"2024-12-22T23:47:46","slug":"imf-elorejelzes-mikor-erhet-veget-a-haboru-ukrajnaban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=55785&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"IMF-el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s: mikor \u00e9rhet v\u00e9get a h\u00e1bor\u00fa Ukrajn\u00e1ban?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Az IMF legfrissebb el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa Ukrajn\u00e1ban ak\u00e1r 2026 k\u00f6zep\u00e9ig is eltarthat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap szak\u00e9rt\u0151i friss\u00edtett\u00e9k Ukrajn\u00e1val kapcsolatos negat\u00edv el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00fcket, figyelembe v\u00e9ve a h\u00e1bor\u00fa hosszabb ideig tart\u00f3 folytat\u00e1s\u00e1nak lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9t. Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa ak\u00e1r 2026 k\u00f6zep\u00e9ig is elh\u00faz\u00f3dhat, ami jelent\u0151s gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyekkel j\u00e1rhat.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A progn\u00f3zis a harci cselekm\u00e9nyek fokoz\u00f3d\u00e1s\u00e1nak val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00e9g\u00e9t t\u00fckr\u00f6zi, ami jelent\u0151s gazdas\u00e1gi vesztes\u00e9geket okozhat. M\u00edg az alapvet\u0151 forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv a konfliktus 2025 v\u00e9g\u00e9re t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 lez\u00e1r\u00e1s\u00e1t val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edtette, az \u00faj el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s szerint a k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si deficit 177,2 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rra n\u0151het az el\u0151z\u0151 148 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rr\u00f3l. Az \u00f6sszes f\u0151 makrogazdas\u00e1gi mutat\u00f3 jelent\u0151sen romlik, a GDP 2025-\u00f6s cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se pedig v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an -2,5% lesz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az IMF el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se hangs\u00falyozza a h\u00e1bor\u00fa hat\u00e1s\u00e1t Ukrajna energetikai infrastrukt\u00far\u00e1j\u00e1ra, ami m\u00e9g nagyobb puszt\u00edt\u00e1shoz \u00e9s \u00e1ramell\u00e1t\u00e1si zavarokhoz vezethet, mint az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvben szerepl\u0151 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s. Ennek k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben az orsz\u00e1g gazdas\u00e1gi \u00fajj\u00e1\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9se lelassul, \u00e9s az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 tov\u00e1bbra is magas szinten marad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e1r a progn\u00f3zisok negat\u00edvak, az IMF kiemeli Ukrajna t\u00e1mogat\u00e1si programj\u00e1nak stabilit\u00e1s\u00e1t. Az ukr\u00e1n korm\u00e1ny \u00e9s nemzetk\u00f6zi partnerei k\u00f6z\u00f6tti t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sok meger\u0151s\u00edtik a p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi garanci\u00e1k megb\u00edzhat\u00f3s\u00e1g\u00e1t, ami lehet\u0151v\u00e9 teszi, hogy a makrogazdas\u00e1gi stabilit\u00e1s el\u00e9r\u00e9se m\u00e9g ilyen k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt is v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 legyen. Emellett k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1von elk\u00e9pzelhet\u0151, hogy Ukrajna fokozatosan k\u00f6zel\u00edt a b\u00e1zis szint\u0171 mutat\u00f3khoz az eur\u00f3pai integr\u00e1ci\u00f3 \u00e9s a visszat\u00e9r\u0151 migr\u00e1ci\u00f3 r\u00e9v\u00e9n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A friss\u00edtett el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s figyelembe veszi a megn\u00f6vekedett v\u00e9delmi sz\u00fcks\u00e9gleteket \u00e9s a gazdas\u00e1gi gyenges\u00e9get is, ami a 2025-2026-os \u00e9vekben a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si deficit n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9hez vezethet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<!– translatorid:vik3255 –><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Az IMF legfrissebb el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa Ukrajn\u00e1ban ak\u00e1r 2026 k\u00f6zep\u00e9ig is eltarthat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":55770,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,33854,49,33],"tags":[1756,33650],"class_list":["post-55785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-hirek","category-ukrajna","tag-elorejelzes","tag-nemzetkozi-valutaalap-imf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55786,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55785\/revisions\/55786"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/55770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}