{"id":55965,"date":"2024-12-30T17:02:31","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T15:02:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=55965"},"modified":"2024-12-29T17:06:02","modified_gmt":"2024-12-29T15:06:02","slug":"az-imf-negativ-es-alapforgatokonyve-ukrajna-szamara","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=55965&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az IMF negat\u00edv \u00e9s alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve Ukrajna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap szak\u00e9rt\u0151i friss\u00edtett\u00e9k az ukrajnai gazdas\u00e1gi helyzet alakul\u00e1s\u00e1nak negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv\u00e9t egy intenz\u00edvebb h\u00e1bor\u00fa eset\u00e9<\/strong><strong>re<\/strong><strong>, amely 2026 k\u00f6zep\u00e9ig is eltarthat<\/strong><strong> \u2013 <\/strong><strong>sz\u00e1mol<\/strong><strong>t<\/strong><strong> be az RBC-Ukra<\/strong><strong>j<\/strong><strong>in<\/strong><strong>a<\/strong><strong> az IMF<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong>memorandum<\/strong><strong>\u00e1<\/strong><strong>ra hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A friss\u00edtett el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint a negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv hosszabb \u00e9s puszt\u00edt\u00f3bb konfliktust j\u00f3sol, m\u00e9lyebb gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyekkel, mint az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv, amely a h\u00e1bor\u00fa v\u00e9g\u00e9t 2025 negyedik negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben j\u00f3solta.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"512\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unnamed-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55932\" style=\"width:584px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unnamed-2.png 512w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unnamed-2-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/unnamed-2-150x150.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hossz\u00fa h\u00e1bor\u00fa eset\u00e9n Ukrajna teljes k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si hi\u00e1nya 177,2 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r lesz, ami jelent\u0151sen meghaladja az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvben felt\u00e9telezett 148 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt. Jelent\u0151sen romlanak a makrogazdas\u00e1gi mutat\u00f3k el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sei, t\u00f6bbek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt a re\u00e1lis GDP cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se, lass\u00fa \u00fajj\u00e1\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9s \u00e9s magasabb, tart\u00f3sabb infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 v\u00e1rhat\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A gazdas\u00e1got \u00e9r\u0151 sokk m\u00e1r 2025 els\u0151 negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben elkezd\u0151dik, ami a v\u00e1llalkoz\u00e1sok \u00e9s a h\u00e1ztart\u00e1sok hangulat\u00e1nak meredek roml\u00e1s\u00e1t, valamint a menek\u00fcltek hazat\u00e9r\u00e9si ar\u00e1ny\u00e1nak cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t okozza. Ezzel p\u00e1rhuzamosan az energetikai infrastrukt\u00fara nagym\u00e9rt\u00e9k\u0171 k\u00e1rosod\u00e1s\u00e1t \u00e9s gyakoribb \u00e1ramsz\u00fcneteket j\u00f3solnak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint a re\u00e1l-GDP 2,5%-kal cs\u00f6kken 2025-ben, szemben az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerinti 2,5-3,5%-os n\u00f6veked\u00e9ssel. A magas v\u00e9delmi kiad\u00e1sok \u00e9s a gyenge gazdas\u00e1gi aktivit\u00e1s hozz\u00e1j\u00e1rul a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9hez 2025\u20132026-ban. A devizapiaci probl\u00e9m\u00e1k tov\u00e1bbra is fenn\u00e1llnak az export roml\u00e1sa miatt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A termel\u00e9s \u00e9l\u00e9nk\u00fcl\u00e9se az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvh\u00f6z k\u00e9pest j\u00f3val lassabb lesz az alapt\u0151ke s\u00falyos k\u00e1rosod\u00e1sa, a roml\u00f3 demogr\u00e1fia \u00e9s a gazdas\u00e1gi m\u00e9rlegek gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9se miatt, ami hosszabb id\u0151re okoz termel\u00e9scs\u00f6kken\u00e9st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ezen neh\u00e9zs\u00e9gek ellen\u00e9re a negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv bizonyos konvergenci\u00e1t felt\u00e9telez a k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa perspekt\u00edva alapszintj\u00e9hez. Pozit\u00edv t\u00e9nyez\u0151 Ukrajna eur\u00f3pai uni\u00f3s csatlakoz\u00e1si v\u00e1gya, a menek\u00fcltek hazat\u00e9r\u00e9se \u00e9s a mag\u00e1nbefektet\u00e9sek bevon\u00e1sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az IMF szak\u00e9rt\u0151i hangs\u00falyozz\u00e1k, hogy a jelent\u0151s kih\u00edv\u00e1sok ellen\u00e9re az Ukrajn\u00e1t t\u00e1mogat\u00f3 program a negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv eset\u00e9n is stabil marad. A makrogazdas\u00e1gi stabilit\u00e1s el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9hez fontos t\u00e9nyez\u0151k a korm\u00e1ny politikai elk\u00f6telezetts\u00e9ge, a nemzetk\u00f6zi partnerek p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi t\u00e1mogat\u00e1sa \u00e9s az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gk\u00f6nny\u00edt\u00e9s. Ez rem\u00e9nyt kelt a program c\u00e9ljainak el\u00e9r\u00e9s\u00e9ben, k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6s tekintettel Ukrajna gazdas\u00e1gi stabilit\u00e1s\u00e1nak \u00e9s hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa k\u00fcls\u0151 \u00e9letk\u00e9pess\u00e9g\u00e9nek biztos\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mit tartalmaz az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap szak\u00e9rt\u0151i friss\u00edtett\u00e9k el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00fcket Oroszorsz\u00e1g Ukrajna elleni h\u00e1bor\u00faj\u00e1nak id\u0151tartam\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3an. Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint az intenz\u00edv harci m\u0171veletek befejez\u00e9s\u00e9nek hat\u00e1rideje v\u00e1ltozatlan marad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az RBC-Ukrajina az IMF-memorandumra hivatkozva k\u00f6z\u00f6lte, az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa 2025 v\u00e9g\u00e9re v\u00e9get \u00e9r. Ugyanakkor megmaradnak az energiaszektor fejleszt\u00e9s\u00e9re vonatkoz\u00f3 felt\u00e9telez\u00e9sek \u00e9s f\u0151bb politikai c\u00e9lok.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv t\u00f6bbek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt az al\u00e1bbiakat tartalmazza:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ukrajna re\u00e1l GDP-j\u00e9nek n\u00f6veked\u00e9se 2024-ben 4%, ami 1 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal t\u00f6bb, mint az IMF kor\u00e1bbi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A t\u00e9li energiahi\u00e1ny gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyei a kor\u00e1bban v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l kev\u00e9sb\u00e9 mark\u00e1nsak lehetnek. Ennek oka a saj\u00e1t termel\u00e9si kapacit\u00e1sok fejleszt\u00e9s\u00e9re ir\u00e1nyul\u00f3 \u00fczleti beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok, az Eur\u00f3p\u00e1b\u00f3l import\u00e1l\u00f3 energiahordoz\u00f3k potenci\u00e1lj\u00e1nak n\u00f6veked\u00e9se, valamint az \u00faj termel\u0151i kapacit\u00e1sok jav\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1ra \u00e9s telep\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9re tett er\u0151fesz\u00edt\u00e9sek.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Az \u00e9v v\u00e9gi infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st 10%-ig n\u00f6velt\u00e9k, a nyersanyag, az alapvet\u0151 \u00e9lelmiszeripari term\u00e9kek dr\u00e1gul\u00e1sa, valamint a b\u00e9rek \u00e9s az energiak\u00f6lts\u00e9gek emelked\u00e9se okoz.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv 2025-re val\u00f3 fel\u00fclvizsg\u00e1lata jelent\u00e9ktelen az okt\u00f3beri el\u0151rejelz\u00e9shez k\u00e9pest. A re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9se 2,5-3,5% k\u00f6z\u00f6tt v\u00e1rhat\u00f3. Ezt a n\u00f6veked\u00e9st 2024-ben az energiakapacit\u00e1sok gyors fel\u00faj\u00edt\u00e1sa, 2025-ben pedig \u00faj kapacit\u00e1sok t\u00e1mogatj\u00e1k, b\u00e1r ezt ellens\u00falyozza a sz\u0171k\u00fcl\u0151 munkaer\u0151piac, amely k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen az \u00e9v els\u0151 fel\u00e9ben visszafoghatja a j\u00f6vedelem \u00e9s a fogyaszt\u00e1s n\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00fctem\u00e9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t 1,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal felfel\u00e9 m\u00f3dos\u00edtott\u00e1k, 10,3%-ra. Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek szerint ugyanakkor az \u00e1tmeneti infl\u00e1ci\u00f3s nyom\u00e1s fokozatosan m\u00e9rs\u00e9kl\u0151dik, az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 az \u00e9v v\u00e9g\u00e9re el\u00e9rheti a 7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1von a f\u0151bb gazdas\u00e1gi mutat\u00f3kra vonatkoz\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek gyakorlatilag v\u00e1ltozatlanok. A re\u00e1l-GDP n\u00f6veked\u00e9se a h\u00e1bor\u00fa befejez\u00e9s\u00e9t k\u00f6vet\u0151 els\u0151 \u00e9vekben v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an pozit\u00edv lesz, \u00e9s a potenci\u00e1lis 4%-ra n\u0151. Az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 2027-re fokozatosan megk\u00f6zel\u00edti a jegybank 5%-os c\u00e9lszintj\u00e9t, mivel cs\u00f6kken az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00fa okozta volatilit\u00e1sa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Megjegyzend\u0151, hogy 2024 okt\u00f3ber\u00e9ben az IMF szak\u00e9rt\u0151i m\u00e1r friss\u00edtett\u00e9k a h\u00e1bor\u00fa id\u0151tartam\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st, egy \u00e9vvel kitolva a h\u00e1bor\u00fa befejez\u00e9s\u00e9nek hat\u00e1ridej\u00e9t. J\u00faniusban az IMF eredetileg 2024 v\u00e9g\u00e9re tervezte a h\u00e1bor\u00fa v\u00e9g\u00e9t, m\u00edg az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv szerint a h\u00e1bor\u00fa 2025 v\u00e9g\u00e9n \u00e9r v\u00e9get.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Oks<\/strong><strong>z<\/strong><strong>ana C<\/strong><strong>s<\/strong><strong>opak<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211;translatorid:ild5234 &#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap szak\u00e9rt\u0151i friss\u00edtett\u00e9k az ukrajnai gazdas\u00e1gi helyzet alakul\u00e1s\u00e1nak negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv\u00e9t egy intenz\u00edvebb h\u00e1bor\u00fa eset\u00e9re, amely 2026 k\u00f6zep\u00e9ig is eltarthat \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be az RBC-Ukrajina az IMF memorandum\u00e1ra hivatkozva.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":55932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,33854,11,33],"tags":[3536,623,120],"class_list":["post-55965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-kiemelt-tema","category-ukrajna","tag-gazdasagi-elorejelzes","tag-imf","tag-ukrajna-hu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=55965"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55965\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55966,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55965\/revisions\/55966"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/55932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=55965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=55965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=55965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}