{"id":56721,"date":"2025-01-26T19:47:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-26T17:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=56721"},"modified":"2025-01-26T12:49:29","modified_gmt":"2025-01-26T10:49:29","slug":"negativra-rontotta-romania-allamados-osztalyzatanak-kilatasat-az-sp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=56721&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Negat\u00edvra rontotta Rom\u00e1nia \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-oszt\u00e1lyzat\u00e1nak kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t az S&#038;P"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Fitch ut\u00e1n az S&amp;P is negat\u00edvra m\u00f3dos\u00edtotta Rom\u00e1nia kil\u00e1t\u00e1sait. Az S&amp;P jelent\u00e9se szerint Rom\u00e1nia sz\u00e9ttagolt \u00e9s bizonytalan politikai k\u00f6rnyezete val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg k\u00e9slelteti az \u00faj korm\u00e1ny k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3s programj\u00e1t.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lemin\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s lehet\u0151s\u00e9g\u00e9re utal\u00f3 negat\u00edvra rontotta az eddigi stabilr\u00f3l Rom\u00e1nia \u00e1llamad\u00f3s-oszt\u00e1lyzat\u00e1nak kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1t az S&amp;P Global Ratings, els\u0151sorban azzal a v\u00e9lem\u00e9ny\u00e9vel indokolva a l\u00e9p\u00e9st, hogy a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben n\u00f6vekednek a rom\u00e1n k\u00f6zfinansz\u00edroz\u00e1st terhel\u0151 kock\u00e1zatok.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/52006d523b574bb795f45802f3d9dc8f.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-56722\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/52006d523b574bb795f45802f3d9dc8f.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/52006d523b574bb795f45802f3d9dc8f-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/52006d523b574bb795f45802f3d9dc8f-768x512.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A nemzetk\u00f6zi hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 a p\u00e9ntek \u00e9jjel Londonban bejelentett d\u00f6nt\u00e9ssel egy id\u0151ben meger\u0151s\u00edtette a hossz\u00fa \u00e9s r\u00f6vid futamidej\u0171, deviz\u00e1ban \u00e9s hazai valut\u00e1ban denomin\u00e1lt rom\u00e1n szuver\u00e9n ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g \u201eBBB m\u00ednusz\/A-3\u201d szint\u0171 besorol\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A \u201eBBB m\u00ednusz\u201d oszt\u00e1lyzat az S&amp;P m\u00f3dszertan\u00e1ban a befektet\u00e9sre aj\u00e1nlott min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9si s\u00e1v als\u00f3 sz\u00e9le, vagyis ha a c\u00e9g err\u0151l a fokozatr\u00f3l lemin\u0151s\u00edti a hossz\u00fa t\u00e1v\u00fa rom\u00e1n \u00e1llamad\u00f3soszt\u00e1lyzatot, Rom\u00e1nia enn\u00e9l a c\u00e9gn\u00e9l elvesz\u00edten\u00e9 befektet\u00e9si aj\u00e1nl\u00e1s\u00fa besorol\u00e1s\u00e1t, \u00e9s \u00e1tker\u00fclne a magas hozam\u00fa \u2013 spekulat\u00edv \u2013 kateg\u00f3ri\u00e1ba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A rom\u00e1n szuver\u00e9n oszt\u00e1lyzat kil\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1nak negat\u00edvra ront\u00e1s\u00e1hoz f\u0171z\u00f6tt indokl\u00e1s\u00e1ban a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 kiemeli, hogy a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9khez (GDP) m\u00e9rt rom\u00e1n \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1si hi\u00e1ny 2020 \u00f3ta sz\u00e1molt \u00e9ves \u00e1tlaga 7,6 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k, \u00e9s a GDP-ar\u00e1nyos \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1gr\u00e1ta ugyanebben az id\u0151szakban 15 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kponttal emelkedett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az S&amp;P Global Ratings k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: becsl\u00e9se szerint az ut\u00f3bbi \u00f6t \u00e9v \u00e1tlag\u00e1n bel\u00fcl a GDP-ar\u00e1nyos rom\u00e1n \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1si deficit tavaly megk\u00f6zel\u00edthette a 8,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot. A c\u00e9g hangs\u00falyozta, hogy saj\u00e1t kor\u00e1bbi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se 2024-re 7,3 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nyt val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171s\u00edtett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A v\u00e1rtn\u00e1l is nagyobb deficit a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben a S&amp;P v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1s\u00e1n\u00e1l is nehezebb\u00e9 teszi a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3t, \u00e9s b\u00e1r a rom\u00e1n \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1s bev\u00e9telei tavaly 10 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal n\u0151ttek \u00e9ves \u00f6sszevet\u00e9sben, a kiad\u00e1sok ugyanakkor 19 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kkal emelkedtek \u2013 \u00e1ll a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az S&amp;P szerint a magas k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1ny miatt a likvid szuver\u00e9n eszk\u00f6z\u00f6kt\u0151l megsz\u0171rt GDP-ar\u00e1nyos \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1gr\u00e1ta a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 h\u00e1rom \u00e9vben folyamatosan emelked\u0151 p\u00e1ly\u00e1n marad, \u00e9s 2027-ig \u00e1tl\u00e9pi a 60 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az expanz\u00edv k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si politika nyom\u00e1n a rom\u00e1n foly\u00f3m\u00e9rleg-egyenleg hi\u00e1nya tavaly val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg meghaladta a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k 8 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t, \u00e9s v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an a 2025\u20132028 k\u00f6z\u00f6tti id\u0151szakban is 6,9 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lesz \u00e9ves \u00e1tlagban \u2013 \u00e1ll a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az S&amp;P Global Ratings v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint ebben a k\u00f6rnyezetben a brutt\u00f3 k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si ig\u00e9ny a foly\u00f3 bev\u00e9telek \u00e9s a felhaszn\u00e1lhat\u00f3 tartal\u00e9kok 100 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9ka felett marad, b\u00e1r a nem ad\u00f3ss\u00e1ggener\u00e1l\u00f3 t\u0151kebe\u00e1raml\u00e1sok \u2013 mindenekel\u0151tt az eur\u00f3pai uni\u00f3s foly\u00f3s\u00edt\u00e1sok \u00e9s a k\u00f6zvetlen k\u00fclf\u00f6ldi befektet\u00e9sek \u2013 a foly\u00f3m\u00e9rleg-hi\u00e1ny 50 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t fedezhetik a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vekben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vg.hu\/nemzetkozi-gazdasag\/2025\/01\/negativra-rontotta-romania-allamadososztalyzatanak-kilatasat-az-s-es-p?utm_source=hirstart&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=hiraggregator\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(vg.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Fitch ut\u00e1n az S&#038;P is negat\u00edvra m\u00f3dos\u00edtotta Rom\u00e1nia kil\u00e1t\u00e1sait. Az S&#038;P jelent\u00e9se szerint Rom\u00e1nia sz\u00e9ttagolt \u00e9s bizonytalan politikai k\u00f6rnyezete val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg k\u00e9slelteti az \u00faj korm\u00e1ny k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3s programj\u00e1t.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":56722,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,49,39],"tags":[541045,51153,1424],"class_list":["post-56721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-az-sp-global-ratings","tag-leminosites","tag-romania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56721","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=56721"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56721\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56723,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56721\/revisions\/56723"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/56722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=56721"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=56721"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=56721"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}