{"id":61555,"date":"2025-07-01T21:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=61555"},"modified":"2025-07-01T16:40:23","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T13:40:23","slug":"az-imf-frissitette-a-negativ-forgatokonyvet-az-ukrajnai-haborura-vonatkozoan-a-targyalasok-kudarca-utan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=61555&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Az IMF friss\u00edtette a negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet az ukrajnai h\u00e1bor\u00fara vonatkoz\u00f3an, a t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sok kudarca ut\u00e1n"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF) szak\u00e9rt\u0151i friss\u00edtett\u00e9k az Ukrajna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet egy intenz\u00edvebb h\u00e1bor\u00fa eset\u00e9re \u2013 sz\u00e1molt be kedden az <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ua\/rus\/news\/peregovori-dali-rezultativ-mvf-onoviv-negativniy-1751353812.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rbc.ua<\/a> h\u00edrport\u00e1l az IMF-fel k\u00f6t\u00f6tt <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/CR\/Issues\/2025\/06\/30\/Ukraine-Eighth-Review-Under-the-Extended-Arrangement-Under-the-Extended-Fund-Facility-568152?cid=em-COM-123-50372\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">memorandumra<\/a> hivatkozva.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A jelent\u00e9s szerint az IMF negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyve tov\u00e1bbra is azt felt\u00e9telezi, hogy a h\u00e1bor\u00fa 2026 m\u00e1sodik negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben v\u00e9get \u00e9r. A friss\u00edtett v\u00e1ltozat azt felt\u00e9telezi, hogy a f\u0151 sokkhat\u00e1s 2025 harmadik negyed\u00e9v\u00e9ben k\u00f6vetkezik be. \u201eA programforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvek alapj\u00e1ul szolg\u00e1l\u00f3 h\u00e1bor\u00fa lefoly\u00e1s\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 felt\u00e9telez\u00e9sek tov\u00e1bbra is relev\u00e1nsak, mivel a b\u00e9ket\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sok m\u00e9g nem hoztak k\u00e9zzelfoghat\u00f3 eredm\u00e9nyeket\u201d \u2013 k\u00f6z\u00f6lte az IMF.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"650\" height=\"410\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ukkrajna-haboru.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-61556\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ukkrajna-haboru.jpg 650w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/ukkrajna-haboru-300x189.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s a re\u00e1l GDP 1%-os cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9t j\u00f3solja 2025-ben, \u00e9s nulla n\u00f6veked\u00e9st 2026-ban. Ugyanakkor a k\u00f6z\u00e9pt\u00e1v\u00fa n\u00f6veked\u00e9si \u00fctemek v\u00e1ltozatlanok maradnak. A 2026\u20132027-es k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si hi\u00e1nyokat felfel\u00e9 m\u00f3dos\u00edtott\u00e1k a v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 kiad\u00e1sn\u00f6veked\u00e9s \u00e9s a bev\u00e9telek cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se miatt. A tartal\u00e9kokat v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an a devizapiac stabiliz\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1ra \u00e9s a destabiliz\u00e1ci\u00f3 megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9re fogj\u00e1k felhaszn\u00e1lni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hi\u00e1nyt a kor\u00e1bban az ERA keret\u00e9ben begy\u0171jt\u00f6tt forr\u00e1sokb\u00f3l \u00e9s a megn\u00f6vekedett belf\u00f6ldi hitelfelv\u00e9telb\u0151l finansz\u00edrozz\u00e1k. A teljes finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si hi\u00e1ny 165,3 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r lesz, ami 2,4 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rral t\u00f6bb, mint a 2025 m\u00e1rcius\u00e1ra vonatkoz\u00f3 kor\u00e1bbi el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s teljes \u00f6sszege (az IMF n\u00e9lk\u00fcl) az IMF program teljes, 2023\u20132027 k\u00f6z\u00f6tti id\u0151szak\u00e1ra 139 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r. Ebb\u0151l 49,2 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt az ERA kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9s keret\u00e9ben k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00edtenek el, egyes r\u00e9szleteket 2026-ra visznek \u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tov\u00e1bbi 12,4 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt tartanak fenn negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv eset\u00e9n. A program befejez\u00e9se ut\u00e1n a donorok nem tesznek \u00faj k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9gv\u00e1llal\u00e1sokat, az \u00e9ves t\u00e1mogat\u00e1s szintje pedig becsl\u00e9sek szerint 5-12 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r. A nagyfok\u00fa bizonytalans\u00e1g miatt Ukrajna v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an nem t\u00e9r vissza a piaci hitelfelv\u00e9telhez 2029 el\u0151tt. Ez az ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g\u00e1tstruktur\u00e1l\u00e1s befejez\u00e9s\u00e9nek sz\u00fcks\u00e9gess\u00e9g\u00e9vel is magyar\u00e1zhat\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ahogy Gita Gopinath, az IMF els\u0151 vez\u00e9rigazgat\u00f3-helyettese kijelentette, Oroszorsz\u00e1g tov\u00e1bbra is s\u00falyos t\u00e1rsadalmi \u00e9s gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00e1rokat okoz Ukrajn\u00e1nak. Az \u00fcgyes gazdas\u00e1gpolitik\u00e1nak \u00e9s a k\u00fcls\u0151 t\u00e1mogat\u00e1snak k\u00f6sz\u00f6nhet\u0151en azonban siker\u00fclt fenntartani a makrogazdas\u00e1gi stabilit\u00e1st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mint mondta, Ukrajna gazdas\u00e1ga ellen\u00e1ll\u00f3nak bizonyul az infrastruktur\u00e1lis k\u00e1rok \u00e9s a munkaer\u0151piaci fesz\u00fclts\u00e9gek ellen\u00e9re, de a h\u00e1bor\u00fa tov\u00e1bbra is r\u00e1nyomja b\u00e9lyeg\u00e9t a n\u00f6veked\u00e9si kil\u00e1t\u00e1sokra. \u201eA kock\u00e1zatok tov\u00e1bbra is rendk\u00edv\u00fcl magasak, \u00e9s el\u0151re meg kell tervezni a l\u00e9p\u00e9seket arra az esetre, ha v\u00e9grehajtj\u00e1k \u0151ket. Ez lehet\u0151v\u00e9 teszi a sz\u00fcks\u00e9ges politikai d\u00f6nt\u00e9sek id\u0151ben t\u00f6rt\u00e9n\u0151 elfogad\u00e1s\u00e1t\u201d \u2013 tette hozz\u00e1 Gita Gopinath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az IMF \u00e1ltal t\u00e1mogatott program tov\u00e1bbra is teljes m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben finansz\u00edrozott. Az alapforgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv 153 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r k\u00fcls\u0151 finansz\u00edroz\u00e1st, a pesszimista forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyv pedig 165 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt ir\u00e1nyoz el\u0151 4 \u00e9vre. Ezek az \u00f6sszegek magukban foglalj\u00e1k a G7 ERA (Rendk\u00edv\u00fcli bev\u00e9teln\u00f6vel\u00e9si k\u00f6lcs\u00f6n\u00f6k Ukrajn\u00e1nak) kezdem\u00e9nyez\u00e9s keret\u00e9ben felhaszn\u00e1lt mintegy 50 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1r teljes felhaszn\u00e1l\u00e1s\u00e1t \u2013 \u00e1ll a k\u00f6zlem\u00e9nyben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(vb\/rbc.ua)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&lt;!&#8211; creatorid:bey5821&nbsp;&#8211;&gt;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Nemzetk\u00f6zi Valutaalap (IMF) szak\u00e9rt\u0151i friss\u00edtett\u00e9k az Ukrajna sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 negat\u00edv forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet egy intenz\u00edvebb h\u00e1bor\u00fa eset\u00e9re.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":61556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,1593,41,33854,17,33,39],"tags":[1756,428,866867,33650,12301],"class_list":["post-61555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-nap-hirei","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-war-hu","category-surgos","category-ukrajna","category-vilag","tag-elorejelzes","tag-gdp","tag-haborus-forgatokonyv","tag-nemzetkozi-valutaalap-imf","tag-ukrajna-gazdasaga"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61555"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61555\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61557,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61555\/revisions\/61557"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/61556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}