{"id":62534,"date":"2025-08-04T22:37:35","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T19:37:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=62534"},"modified":"2025-08-03T22:43:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-03T19:43:12","slug":"zombijarvany-modellezesevel-keszulnek-a-krizisekre-a-britek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=62534&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Zombij\u00e1rv\u00e1ny modellez\u00e9s\u00e9vel k\u00e9sz\u00fclnek a kr\u00edzisekre a britek"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Szokatlannak t\u0171n\u0151 t\u00e9m\u00e1ban adott ki egy jelent\u00e9st a tekint\u00e9lyes National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), Nagy-Britannia legr\u00e9gebbi f\u00fcggetlen gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zete. A dokumentumban egy elk\u00e9pzelt zombij\u00e1rv\u00e1ny hat\u00e1sait modellezik. Az elemz\u0151k \u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1sa szerint a makro\u00f6kon\u00f3miai modellre \u00e9p\u00fcl\u0151 bel\u00e1t\u00e1sok seg\u00edthetik a felk\u00e9sz\u00fcl\u00e9st a kr\u00edzishelyzetek gazdas\u00e1gi k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nyeire.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A fikci\u00f3s zombij\u00e1rv\u00e1ny forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvet az elemz\u0151k saj\u00e1t, \u00e1tfog\u00f3 \u00f6konometriai modellj\u00fckre \u00e9p\u00edtett\u00e9k \u2013 mutatja be cikk\u00e9ben az Origo<\/a>. Az elemz\u0151k felhaszn\u00e1lt\u00e1k munk\u00e1juk sor\u00e1n a Covid\u201319 vil\u00e1gj\u00e1rv\u00e1ny mint glob\u00e1lis kr\u00edzis, valamint az orosz\u2013ukr\u00e1n h\u00e1bor\u00fa n\u00e9h\u00e1ny tanuls\u00e1g\u00e1t is, mintegy r\u00e1\u00fcltetve ezeket a val\u00f3s\u00e1gos tapasztalatokat modellj\u00fckre. C\u00e9ljuk az, hogy egy fikt\u00edv zombij\u00e1rv\u00e1nyt modellezve seg\u00edts\u00e9g a felk\u00e9sz\u00fcl\u00e9st a val\u00f3s\u00e1gos kr\u00edzisekre a gazdas\u00e1gi folyamatokban.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u00cdgy harapn\u00e1k a zombik a brit gazdas\u00e1got<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A lap bemutatja, hogy az elemz\u0151k a f\u0151k\u00e9nt gazdas\u00e1gi kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s, az \u00e1llami kiad\u00e1sok, az \u00e1llamad\u00f3ss\u00e1g, a lakoss\u00e1g ell\u00e1t\u00e1sa, valamint a munkaer\u0151piaci v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok szempontj\u00e1b\u00f3l vizsg\u00e1lt\u00e1k a v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 folyamatokat egy esetleges \u201ezombifert\u0151z\u00e9s\u201d elterjed\u00e9se kapcs\u00e1n. Az elemz\u0151k negyed\u00e9ves peri\u00f3dusokra bontva a folyamatot, \u00e9rt\u00e9kelt\u00e9k a felt\u00e9telezett zombij\u00e1rv\u00e1ny lefoly\u00e1s\u00e1t, \u00f6t\u00e9ves id\u0151tartamra tekintve, abb\u00f3l kiindulva, hogy a fert\u0151z\u00e9sb\u0151l val\u00f3 felgy\u00f3gyul\u00e1s es\u00e9lye 0 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k, azaz gy\u00f3gym\u00f3dot nem tal\u00e1lnak r\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Az ell\u00e1t\u00e1si oldalon az okozna gondot, hogy a termel\u00e9s le\u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s\u00e1val drasztikusan visszaesne a kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A korm\u00e1nyzat kiad\u00e1sainak jav\u00e1t ennek a helyzetnek a kezel\u00e9s\u00e9re kellene ford\u00edtania, valamint jelent\u0151sen n\u00f6velnie a v\u00e9delmi kiad\u00e1sokat a zombik elleni v\u00e9dekez\u00e9sben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A korm\u00e1nyzati ad\u00f3ss\u00e1g \u00edgy azzal p\u00e1rhuzamosan n\u0151ne, hogy k\u00f6zben beszakadn\u00e1nak az ad\u00f3befizet\u00e9sek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

E hat\u00e1sok miatt a brit re\u00e1l GDP (az \u00e1rv\u00e1ltoz\u00e1sok hat\u00e1s\u00e1t kisz\u0171r\u0151 adat) az els\u0151 k\u00e9t \u00e9vben jelent\u0151s visszaes\u00e9st szenvedne el, majd kism\u00e9rt\u00e9kben korrig\u00e1lna. Hossz\u00fa t\u00e1von azonban a re\u00e1l GDP tart\u00f3san cs\u00f6kken, ami a gazdas\u00e1g termel\u0151kapacit\u00e1s\u00e1nak a munkaer\u0151-k\u00edn\u00e1lat cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se k\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9ben jelentkez\u0151 visszaes\u00e9s\u00e9nek tulajdon\u00edthat\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ennek m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke sokkol\u00f3, a j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny kit\u00f6r\u00e9s\u00e9t\u0151l sz\u00e1m\u00edtott negyedik negyed\u00e9vben a 30 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot is el\u00e9rn\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00d6t\u00e9ves id\u0151tartamon sz\u00e1molva, a GDP cs\u00f6kken\u00e9se \u00e1tlagosan t\u00f6bb mint 21 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k lenne, az elh\u00faz\u00f3d\u00f3 hat\u00e1sokat figyelembe v\u00e9ve. Ugyanakkor a forgat\u00f3k\u00f6nyvben szerepl\u0151 param\u00e9terek alapj\u00e1n nincs sz\u00f3 \u201eciviliz\u00e1ci\u00f3s \u00f6sszeoml\u00e1sr\u00f3l.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Szokatlannak t\u0171n\u0151 t\u00e9m\u00e1ban adott ki egy jelent\u00e9st a tekint\u00e9lyes National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), Nagy-Britannia legr\u00e9gebbi f\u00fcggetlen gazdas\u00e1gkutat\u00f3 int\u00e9zete. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":62536,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,23,49,39],"tags":[188706,910500,910499,910502,910498],"class_list":["post-62534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cikkek","category-fotok","category-hirek","category-vilag","tag-brit-gazdasag","tag-krizis","tag-modellezes","tag-national-institute-of-economic-and-social-research-niesr","tag-zombijarvany"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62534"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62534\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62538,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62534\/revisions\/62538"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/62536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}