{"id":65517,"date":"2025-11-16T17:56:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T15:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=65517"},"modified":"2025-11-16T11:01:24","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T09:01:24","slug":"adossagbesorolasokon-kivulre-helyezte-ukrajnat-a-fitch-ratings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/?p=65517&lang=hu","title":{"rendered":"Ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gbesorol\u00e1sokon k\u00edv\u00fclre helyezte Ukrajn\u00e1t a Fitch Ratings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Nincs ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gbesorol\u00e1sa a Fitch Ratings hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151n\u00e9l Ukrajn\u00e1nak. Pontosabban van, de nem a sk\u00e1l\u00e1n, amelyen az ad\u00f3sok p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi helyzet\u00e9t oszt\u00e1lyozz\u00e1k: ez a besorol\u00e1s Ukrajna hossz\u00fa futam\u00fa szuver\u00e9n devizaad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9gein a \u201erestricted default\u201d (RD), a r\u00e9szleges cs\u0151d, amit p\u00e9ntek \u00e9jjel er\u0151s\u00edtettek meg. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben a Fitchs k\u00f6z\u00f6lte: a besorol\u00e1shoz nem kapcsol\u00f3dik oszt\u00e1lyzati kil\u00e1t\u00e1s, mert a CCC plusz, illetve az ett\u0151l elmarad\u00f3 min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9sekre nem \u00e1llap\u00edtanak meg kil\u00e1t\u00e1st \u2013 jelentette az MTI.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1314\" height=\"829\" src=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ukrajna.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-65518\" srcset=\"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ukrajna.png 1314w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ukrajna-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ukrajna-1024x646.png 1024w, https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/ukrajna-768x485.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1314px) 100vw, 1314px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A hitelbesorol\u00e1sokat a min\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 int\u00e9zetek negat\u00edv, stabil vagy pozit\u00edv kil\u00e1t\u00e1ssal szokt\u00e1k k\u00f6z\u00f6lni, t\u00e1j\u00e9koztat\u00e1st ny\u00fajtva ezzel a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171 ir\u00e1ny\u00e1r\u00f3l, illetve orient\u00e1lva az ad\u00f3sokat. Ez az ad\u00f3s nem kapott ilyen \u00e9rtelemben orient\u00e1ci\u00f3t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A j\u00f6v\u0151t illet\u0151en az\u00e9rt term\u00e9szetesen adott jelz\u00e9st az indokl\u00e1s: az RD min\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9s mindaddig \u00e9rv\u00e9nyben marad, am\u00edg Ukrajna nem normaliz\u00e1lja viszonyrendszer\u00e9t k\u00fcls\u0151 kereskedelmi hitelez\u0151inek jelent\u0151s t\u00f6bbs\u00e9g\u00e9vel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c1ltal\u00e1ban olyan h\u00edrekkel szembes\u00fcl\u00fcnk, amelyek szerint Kijev innen vagy onnan kapott \u00fajabb p\u00e9nzt, t\u00e1mogat\u00e1st, hitelt (az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokt\u00f3l Donald Trump eln\u00f6ks\u00e9ge alatt m\u00e1r nem, az Eur\u00f3pai Uni\u00f3t\u00f3l az\u00f3ta felp\u00f6rgetetten), \u00edgy kevesebb figyelem ir\u00e1nyul arra, hogy megl\u00e9v\u0151 k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9geit Ukrajna nem mind teljes\u00edtette \u2013 ezzel a h\u00e1tt\u00e9rrel folyik a nyom\u00e1sgyakorl\u00e1s Belgiumra \u00e9s m\u00e1s uni\u00f3s tagorsz\u00e1gokra, hogy ny\u00fajtsanak 140 milli\u00e1rd eur\u00f3s hitelt a h\u00e1bor\u00fas orsz\u00e1gnak a befagyasztott orosz vagyon fedezete mellett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ukrajna cs\u0151dbe ment: t\u00e1rgyaltak a hitelez\u0151kkel, akik azt\u00e1n nem kaptak semmit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch felid\u00e9zte:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ukrajna nem teljes\u00edtette egy 2,6 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1ros GDP-k\u00f6t\u0151d\u00e9s\u0171 k\u00f6tv\u00e9ny j\u00fanius 2-\u00e1n lej\u00e1rt 665 milli\u00f3 doll\u00e1ros r\u00e9szletfizet\u00e9si k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9g\u00e9t,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00e9s a t\u00edznapos t\u00fcrelmi id\u0151szak is fizet\u00e9s n\u00e9lk\u00fcl \u00e9rt v\u00e9get. (A GDP-hez k\u00f6t\u00f6tt k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyk\u00f6telezetts\u00e9gek (GDP warrants) \u00f6sszetett szerkezet\u0171 ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gkonstrukci\u00f3k, amelyek t\u00f6rleszt\u00e9se rendszerint a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9k (GDP) meghat\u00e1rozott \u00fctem\u0171 n\u00f6veked\u00e9se, illetve a GDP-\u00e9rt\u00e9k ugyancsak el\u0151re meghat\u00e1rozott szintj\u00e9nek el\u00e9r\u00e9se eset\u00e9n v\u00e1lik esed\u00e9kess\u00e9.)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch Ratings az RD besorol\u00e1s fenntart\u00e1s\u00e1nak indokai k\u00f6z\u00e9 sorolta azt is, hogy GDP-hez k\u00f6t\u00f6tt ukr\u00e1n k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek befektet\u0151ivel folytatott \u00e1t\u00fctemez\u00e9si t\u00e1rgyal\u00e1sok m\u00e1sodik fordul\u00f3ja is eredm\u00e9nytelen\u00fcl v\u00e9gz\u0151d\u00f6tt november elej\u00e9n, \u00e9s a hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 szerint ez azt jelzi, hogy tov\u00e1bbra is jelent\u0151sek a n\u00e9zetelt\u00e9r\u00e9sek a k\u00f6tv\u00e9nycsere felt\u00e9teleir\u0151l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Az ukr\u00e1n k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9sben akkora a lyuk, amilyet m\u00e9g nem is l\u00e1ttak<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1sa szerint a hazai \u00f6sszterm\u00e9khez m\u00e9rt ukr\u00e1n \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1si hi\u00e1ny az id\u00e9n el\u00e9ri a 25,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kot. Ez a legmagasabb m\u00e9rt\u00e9k azon bel\u00fcl, amit a c\u00e9g hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151 besorol\u00e1si univerzuma ismer. Azt j\u00f3solj\u00e1k: a deficit j\u00f6v\u0151re 19,7 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra cs\u00f6kken, de a h\u00e1bor\u00fa folytat\u00f3d\u00e1sa azt jelenti, hogy a v\u00e9delmi kiad\u00e1sok tov\u00e1bbra is magasak lesznek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A Fitch azzal sz\u00e1mol, hogy a v\u00e9delmi c\u00e9lokra ford\u00edtott \u00f6sszegek el\u00e9rik az \u00e9ves ukr\u00e1n GDP 28 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t, illetve az ukr\u00e1n k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si kiad\u00e1sok 43 sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1sra a h\u00e1bor\u00fa esetleges befejez\u0151d\u00e9se ut\u00e1n is hatalmas terhek nehezednek: a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 \u00e9vtizedben a becsl\u00e9s szerint 524 milli\u00e1rd doll\u00e1rt kell az \u00fajj\u00e1\u00e9p\u00edt\u00e9sre ford\u00edtani \u2013 \u00e1ll a Fitch elemz\u00e9s\u00e9ben. Ez annyi, mint majdnem h\u00e1rom\u00e9vi teljes ukr\u00e1n GDP a tavalyi sz\u00e1mok alapj\u00e1n, teh\u00e1t irt\u00f3zatos \u00f6sszeg az ukr\u00e1n termel\u00e9shez k\u00e9pest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/hirado.hu\/kulfold\/cikk\/2025\/11\/15\/ukrajna-csodhelyzetben-belgiumtol-kernek-orosz-penzt-a-haboru-folytatasahoz-von-der-leyenek\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">(hirado.hu)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nincs ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gbesorol\u00e1sa a Fitch Ratings hitelmin\u0151s\u00edt\u0151n\u00e9l Ukrajn\u00e1nak. Pontosabban van, de nem a sk\u00e1l\u00e1n, amelyen az ad\u00f3sok p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi helyzet\u00e9t oszt\u00e1lyozz\u00e1k: ez a besorol\u00e1s Ukrajna hossz\u00fa futam\u00fa szuver\u00e9n devizaad\u00f3ss\u00e1g-k\u00f6telezetts\u00e9gein a \u201erestricted default\u201d (RD), a r\u00e9szleges cs\u0151d, amit p\u00e9ntek \u00e9jjel er\u0151s\u00edtettek meg. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":12556,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1593,41,17,33,39],"tags":[77234,1361,3795,6933],"class_list":["post-65517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actual-hu","category-cikkek","category-surgos","category-ukrajna","category-vilag","tag-besorolas","tag-csod","tag-fitch-ratings","tag-hitelminosites"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/12"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=65517"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":65519,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65517\/revisions\/65519"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=65517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=65517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economic.karpat.in.ua\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=65517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}